Australian Open Women's Draw Analysis - Issue #21

With the Australian Open starting today, it's only right that we take the time to highlight some seeds, dark horses, and in-form players that could make some noise in the first slam of the year.

Written by Dove Sallow

Seeds 1-17

Iga Świątek

To no one’s surprise, Iga is the #1 seed. After having a historic 2022 season, where she captured 8 titles and accumulated a 37-match win streak, all eyes will be on the Pole as she seeks her 4th Grand Slam title. She suffered a pretty shocking loss at the United Cup against Jessica Pegula, where she only won 2 games in each set. Iga was seen in tears after the match and withdrew from Adelaide 2 shortly after, due to a shoulder injury. It would appear she's coming into this Australian Open with a bit less confidence than we are used to seeing from her. To make matters worse, Iga's draw is a nightmare (Niemeier 1st round, potential Andreescu 3rd round, Rybakina/Collins 4th round). The Tennis Gods have not been kind to Iga with this draw, as I see Rybakina and Collins as two of the only people who can stop her. Collins most notably beat Iga in the semis in Australia last year and Rybakina also took her down at World Tennis League last month. Having to face either one of those players early is a daunting task and doesn't give her much time to find her confidence. But if anyone can navigate this tricky draw and find that world #1 form quickly, it's Świątek.

Ons Jabuer

Ons is the #2 seed here for a reason. She made 2 slam finals last year and walked away empty handed, so she will be looking to capture that first Grand Slam title more than ever. Unfortunately, our beloved shotmaker picked up a bit of a lower back injury in her match against Linda Noskova in Adelaide 1. She finished the match but looked hampered and went down in the third set. Obviously, Ons has the game to disrupt anyone in this draw. But the question will be if she's healthy enough to make a deep run in Australia. Marketa Vondrousova, another tricky player, is a likely 2nd round match up for Jabuer. That's not a cakewalk of a 2nd round. Ons also has the giant-slayer, Kaia Kanepi, looming in her 3rd round. Haddad Maia/Samsonova winner is a likely matchup for her 4th round. If Ons is healthy, she beats all of these players - especially in a slam. But we will have to wait and see how she looks when the tournament starts.

Jessica Pegula

Jess is the #3 seed and is certainly playing like it. After thrashing Iga Świątek last week at the United Cup, Jess will be riding high on confidence. Pegula is an interesting one. For starters, her greatest asset that sets her apart is her ability to consistently deliver big results - which is an area where most of the WTA are lacking. Pegula doesn't have any massive weapons, but she hits flat and hard. She doesn't make a lot of errors and plays high percentage tennis while still being aggressive. Pegula's draw isn't the best, and it isn't the worst. She could face Anisimova/Kostyuk in her 3rd round and an in-form Petra Kvitova in her 4th round. Pegula lost to Petra a few weeks ago at the United Cup, but Petra's form can be erratic. Ball-bashing Madison Keys is also in her section, but I still see Jess making a deep run. If Iga is not up to her normal standard and Ons is not healthy, Pegula becomes one of the clear favorites in my eyes.

Caroline Garcia

The #4 seed was one of the best comeback stories we've seen in quite some time. She really caught fire toward the second half of 2022 and it all built up to a massive win at the WTA Finals. Garcia's style of play is highly unusual. She stands incredibly far inside the baseline to return both first and second serves and is determined to get that first strike at any cost. When her timing is just right, she's the best player in the world simply because she doesn't allow her opponents to get any value out of their serve, no matter how good it is. But when her timing is off, Caro looks very ordinary. In her most recent showing at Adelaide 2, the form she displayed was the latter. She went three sets with Katerina Siniakova in her first round and squeaked out the win, unconvincingly, 7-5 in the 3rd. Garcia lost to eventual champion, Belinda Bencic, in the next round in three sets. Garcia actually played better than in her 1st round match, but she still looked completely lost at times (particularly in the 1st set). Luckily for Garcia, her draw isn't the worst. The first seed she'd face would be Anett Kontaveit or Ekaterina Alexandrova, who are both so up and down with their form these days. But before she gets to either of them, Caro's 2nd round could be potentially tough as well (Fernandez/Cornet). Garcia is definitely the favorite in her section to reach the quarterfinals, but I'm not convinced on her yet this season.

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna is the #5 seed and will be a dangerous opponent for anybody in this draw. Coming off a title in Adelaide 1, Aryna looks very sharp this year. The serving troubles seem to be mostly behind her and she looks confident. She's as aggressive as ever and is not making a ton of errors. When her serve is clicking and she can keep the unforced errors relatively low (for her), she can beat any player and win any title. Sabalenka's first few rounds should be pretty simple for her if she keeps her form up. The first big name she would face would be Garbiñe Muguruza/Elise Mertens in the 3rd round. Things get a bit trickier in the 4th round as she'll likely face another 2023 title winner, Belinda Bencic, who is also in red hot form. But if she comes through that test and if Ons Jabuer is not entirely healthy, Aryna has a great shot at reaching the final.

Maria Sakkari

The Spartan Warrior is the #6 seed and as always, it's a bit tricky trying to decide if she's a favorite or if she's an upset waiting to happen. Sakkari suffered a loss to Martina Trevisan (who played an unbelievable match) at the United Cup last week, and looked very dejected when they shook hands at the net. Sakkari has the physical strength of a Spartan, but her mental strength is often lacking in slams. Her 3rd round opponent could be the tricky lefty, Jil Teichmann, and she could encounter Madison Keys in the 4th round. I have a feeling Madison will pull off the upset if Jil doesn't.

Coco Gauff

The #7 seed had a breakout year in 2022 and is a new addition to the top 10. Coming off a title win in Auckland, Coco is starting her season off 5-0. The catch to that 5-0 record is that she didn't face anyone in the top 50. But a title is a title and confidence is confidence. The more matches you win, the more confidence you'll have. Her first few rounds could be a bit dicey as she'll face Katerina Siniakova in her opener, a player who beat her at Billie Jean King Cup in November. US Open champ, Emma Raducanu, likely awaits in the 2nd round. Emma suffered a pretty heartbreaking injury in Auckland last week, so questions remain about her health. If Coco gets through those first couple of rounds, she gets the delightful task of facing Qinwen Zheng in the 3rd round. Qinwen is no joke. If Coco gets through her, the 4th round should be a bit less challenging as Paula Badosa withdrew from her section of the draw due to an injury. But if Coco gets through Qinwen, then it means she's come to play this year.

Daria Kasatkina

The #8 seed had an impressive climb back to the top 10 in 2022. Her game is unique and beautiful to watch. Dasha does not possess a big serve or big groundstrokes, but she makes up for it with her speed and tennis IQ. She weaves a web for her opponents that can be tricky to navigate. Dasha reached the final in Adelaide 2 this past weekend, where she lost to Belinda Bencic 6-0 6-2. That was a tough loss, but her first two matches were very impressive, as she took out Barbora Krejčíková and Petra Kvitova in straight sets. Her draw is pretty straightforward until the 4th round, where she could face an in-form Veronika Kudermetova. If they both make it that far, I have a hard time seeing Dasha getting past Kudermetova with the form she's in.

Veronika Kudermetova

Kuder is the #9 seed and a new addition to the top 10. After having a ruthless season in 2022, Veronika is a top seed and in a pretty good position to strike/make a deep run in Australia. Firstly, because her draw is favorable. 23-seeded Shuai Zhang would be the first seed she'd face. If she gets through that, Veronika will also like her chances in a potential clash with Daria Kasatkina in the 4th round. Daria beat her when they played in Saint Petersburg in 2021, but Kudermetova is a different player these days. Kudermetova would be my pick to reach the semifinals out of her section.

Madison Keys

Madison is the #10 seed and is defending a ton of points heading into the Australian Open. She reached the semifinals last year, where she fell to eventual champion, Ash Barty. But Madison will like her chances at making the second week here. Sofia Kenin/Vika Azarenka will be a tough test in the 3rd round. But if she can get through that, I see Keys reaching the quarterfinals. If her serve and forehand are both firing, she can really beat anyone in Australia.

Belinda Bencic

The #12 seed is playing as well as I've ever seen her play. Coming off a title in Adelaide 2, Bencic stormed through Garbiñe Muguruza, Anna Kalinskaya, Caroline Garcia, and Daria Kasatkina to win her 7th career title. Bencic has a knack for going on random hard court runs where she looks unstoppable. Look at the 2020
Olympics for example - she came in with no form and randomly captured magic in a bottle to win the Gold. Bencic has true magic in her and has the game/belief to win a slam. If Ons isn't healthy and if she can get past Sabalenka, Belinda could make another deep run here. Since hiring Dmitry Tursunov at the end of last year, she seems to have that spark again.

Danielle Collins

Danimal is seeded #13, but should probably be seeded higher. She was the runner-up last year in Australia, so is defending a lot of points. Collins only played a handful of events last year, likely due to her rheumatoid arthritis. But if she had played a full schedule, I believe she'd still be in the top 10. There's no one on tour who competes as well as Danielle Collins. She brings the intensity to every single match and never goes quietly. Her backhand is the best on tour, in my opinion, and she's one of the hardest hitters on tour as well. She loves the conditions in Australia and says they remind her of her home in Florida. Danielle's draw is not an easy one, as she'll likely face Wimbledon champ, Elena Rybakina, in the 3rd round. She lost to Elena in 3 sets two weeks ago in Adelaide 1. But knowing Danielle, she's saving her best for the Australian Open. If she gets through that, she'll face world #1 Iga Świątek in the 4th round. Coco Gauff/Qinwen Zheng likely awaits in the quarterfinals. This top section of the draw is an absolute nightmare and whoever comes out of it will be feeling incredibly confident.

Beatriz Haddad Maia

Bia, the #14 seed, had an impeccable year in 2022. Her style of play is extremely physical, as she hits a heavy ball, has a big serve, and can also wear down her opponents with long rallies. Most recently, she played a grinder against Paula Badosa in Adelaide 2. Beatriz lost the match, but it was incredibly close (7-6, 7-5), and became physically exhausting for Paula. Paula actually got injured during this match and was forced to withdraw from the Australian Open as a result. Haddad Maia could face Liudmila Samsonova or Donna Vekic in the 3rd round - who are both capable of beating her. Unless one of them has a bad day, I don't see Beatriz getting past round 3.

Petra Kvitova

Petra is the #15 seed and is looking as dangerous as ever. She had a horrendous start to last season, but caught fire again in the second half of 2022. She started off 2023 in a big way when she defeated Jessica Pegula in straight sets at the United Cup. Pegula makes you work for every point, so Petra coming through that match was a very positive sign. She also defeated Elena Rybakina in straight sets in Adelaide 2 and led Qinwen Zheng by a set before Zheng retired due to injury. Her only loss this season came at the hands of Kasatkina, who beat her in straight sets. But Petra loves the conditions in Australia. She's a former finalist here and has the weapons to win it. The struggle for Petra is remaining consistent. She has Barbora Krejčíková in her 3rd round, but I like her chances in that match. She has Pegula in her 4th round, and if she beats Jess twice in a two week span, alarm bells will ring for the entire WTA tour.

Anett Kontaveit

The #16 seed has had a whirlwind couple of seasons. 2021 was incredible and 2022 not so much. Although Anett was world #2 during the latter season, she caught long Covid and had a tough time recovering. When she did physically recover, her top 10 form was M.I.A. Anett played a pretty fantastic match against Qinwen Zheng in her first match of the year. She was down by a set and a break, but fought back and had a match point before losing 7-6 in the 3rd. Even though she lost, she would've beaten a lot of people playing like that. Her next match, against Paula Badosa, was lackluster. She was spraying errors everywhere, and a lot of them weren't even close to finding the court. Luckily for Kontaveit, the Tennis Gods gave her a great draw for a player lacking in confidence and match wins. She'll face Julia Grabher in the first round, Sherif/Linette in the second round, and likely Ekaterina Alexandrova in the 3rd round. Alexandrova can be tricky, but those are some very winnable matches for Anett to find her form. If she does find it, she'll probably face Begu or Garcia in the 4th round. Given Garcia's current form, those are winnable matches for Anett as well. If she can turn things around, Anett could find herself in the quarterfinals. But at the very least, I expect her to make the second week with a draw like this. She's not playing her best, but as we've seen with the WTA tour, a lot can change with a good draw, and some match wins under your belt. There's a lot to like about Anett's game. She takes the ball early and is wonderfully aggressive. If things start to click, she's in a good place in the draw to make some noise.

Jelena Ostapenko

The #17 seed is not in the form of her life. She did beat Karolina Pliskova in her first match of 2023, but suffered disappointing losses to Begu and Kalinskaya in her next two matches. Ostapenko is an incredible ball-striker. Some of the winners she hits actually make my jaw drop. But when she's having a bad day, there's no plan B. With Paula Badosa's withdrawal, Jelena has a good chance to make the second week as she wouldn't face a seeded player until the 4th round. But if she makes it that far, that's when it gets real, as Gauff/Qinwen likely await.

Lower Ranked Seeds

Liudmila Samsonova

The #18 seed was incredible in the second half of 2022. Her serve is tremendous and she can ball-bash with the best of them. In the 3 matches she's played in 2023, she's been unconvincing. She went 3 sets with Shuai Zhang in Adelaide 1 before losing to Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets. She lost to Amanda Anisimova in the first round of Adelaide 2, which is by no means a bad loss, but her game was poignantly off. But with weapons like hers, Samsonova will be a dark horse and a threat to anyone if she finds her best tennis.

Elena Rybakina

Elena is seeded #22, but if you've been paying attention to tennis over the last 8 months, you know she should be seeded much higher. If she were awarded Wimbledon points, she'd be in the top 10. But as things stand, she remains a low seed and a very dangerous floater. Elena has the best serve in the draw and some of the biggest groundstrokes. I believe to my core that she will win more Grand Slams. But if she were to do it here in Australia, she'd have to overcome a nightmare draw. Collins awaits in the third round and Świątek in the 4th. Gauff/Qinwen in the quarterfinals... you know the drill by now. But one thing about Elena, she isn't intimidated by anything or anyone. She knows she can beat Collins as well as Iga. She's beaten both of them in the last month. If she can find her best tennis and remain focused like she did during Wimbledon, she has the game to win the whole thing.

Dark Horses

Qinwen Zheng

The #29 seed, is a dark horse and a dangerous floater in this draw. Qinwen is a tremendously gifted athlete. That's the only way to describe her. She's tall, strong, quick, flexible, and basically everything you want in a tennis player. The heaviness of her forehand is unlike anything I've ever seen on the WTA tour. She also seems to have that ability to come up with a massive serve whenever she needs it. As I said previously, Qinwen is in a nightmare section of the draw. It's a toss-up for who makes it through that quarter. But Zheng will be a Grand Slam Champion one day - it's just a matter of when.

Marta Kostyuk

The current world #61 is one of only two unseeded players to make our dark horse list. Marta has a love for Australia, as she became the youngest player in over 20 years to reach the 3rd round of the Australian Open as a 15 year-old. The 20 year-old Ukrainian is a natural athlete with a complete game. Last week in Adelaide 1, she defeated Wimbledon champion, Elena Rybakina, in a three-set battle. She served intelligently, moved quickly, finished points at the net, and was able to keep up with Elena’s power from the baseline. Marta lost in the quarterfinals to Ons Jabuer in a tight match (7-6(5), 7-5), but she put on a brilliant display. She has some of the most underrated volleys on tour and can play from all areas of the court. Marta faces Amanda Anisimova in the first round, and I expect her to pull off the upset. I imagine she will go down to Pegula in the 3rd round, but if she plays to her full capabilities, she’s capable of going deeper in this draw.

Donna Vekic

The current world #64, is the 2nd and final unseeded player to make our dark horse list. Donna was a former top 20 player who fell from grace. But she made a valiant effort to climb back to the upper echelon of tennis toward the end of 2022. Donna made a run to the final of a WTA 500 in San Diego, where she was runner-up to Iga Świątek. En route to that final, Vekic defeated Maria Sakkari, Karolina Pliskova, Aryna Sabalenka, and Danielle Collins. I couldn’t imagine a tougher list of opponents to take down on the way to a WTA 500 Final. But the Croatian came through it and reintroduced herself as a threat to the tour. Donna hits the ball hard and flat. She’s a big server and is lethal on fast courts. She’s 3-0 so far in 2023, with some wins at the United Cup last week. She has a potential clash with Liudmila Samsonova in the 2nd round. Obviously, Samsonova is the favorite, but Vekic is more than capable - particularly when thinking of Samsonova’s most recent loss to Anisimova last week. If Vekic wins that match, I think she’ll take down Haddad Maia in the 3rd round. Jabuer/Kanepi is her likely 4th round opponent, but Ons is trying to bounce back from a lower back injury and Kanepi can be streaky. If Ons is healthy, she’s the clear favorite to go deep. But if she’s not, I could see Donna going on a bit of a tear to make the quarterfinals.