Indian Wells 2023: King and Queen of the Desert - Issue #29
Indian Wells did not disappoint. Elena Rybakina and Carlos Alcaraz played some of the best tennis of the year to become champions in the desert. Here's our breakdown of each final.
Indian Wells 2023 was a ride, and I mean that with the utmost sincerity. From Daniil Medvedev's infamously charming dialogue with the court/conditions to Elena Rybakina bulldozing her way through some of the slowest conditions on tour, this was one of the most interesting years in Tennis Paradise we've had in a while. Tennis is at a place where both the WTA and ATP have this unpredictability factor that just wasn't there over the last twenty years.
The women's game has never been more unpredictable than it has been these last few years. Iga Świątek dominated in every facet of 2022, but this year has a sense of uncertainty that's unsettling and exhilarating at the same time. The game doesn't feel as open as it did when, say, Emma Raducanu won the US Open as a qualifier without dropping a set. It feels more like there are women stepping up to the plate and laying the groundwork to challenge Iga and possibly overtake her. The two women who've been up to the challenge lately are obviously Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, and they've been hitting some home runs. And on the men's side, who would've thought we'd ever see a teenager as complete as Carlos Alcaraz? He's such a well-rounded player with so many different weapons that it wasn't shocking to see him lift the trophy as a teenager. But that's not to say it wasn't unbelievable; it's more just a testament to how great he is already. And I can't not talk about Daniil Medvedev coming into this event on the heels of winning three consecutive titles and then taking it a step further by reaching the final. I guess they don't call this "The Fifth Slam" for nothing.
Women’s Final
Starting with the women's final, I couldn't have been happier to see Elena and Aryna face off in one of the most important events in the sport. Not only because they played the best tennis of the tournament these past two weeks, but also because of the conditions they were able to hit through. I know you've probably heard enough about the conditions this week from Daniil, but I have to mention it. The courts at this tournament are by far the slowest conditions you'll ever see on a hard court. Elena even went as far as to say the courts felt slower than a clay court. Elena and Aryna each have hyper-aggressive games that are tailor made for fast surfaces. They're the two best servers we have on tour at the moment. They're also two of the hardest hitters on tour and like to end points quickly. In theory, they should lose a lot of their advantages on a slow court. Elena had the horrifying task of facing Iga Swiatek in the semifinals, but was able to hit her off the court as if she was back at Wimbledon. I was stunned, to say the least. When you're facing world #1, you have to be perfect - that's exactly what she was. Rybakina played some of the best tennis I've ever seen by a man or woman. It reminded me a bit of the "perfect match" Simona Halep played against Serena Williams at Wimbledon 2019.
"With Iga, she’s tough.. but when I play this good and everything goes in, because today some moments I played, I would say, on my highest level. There are moments where you feel, okay, I can beat anyone if I always play like this."
Elena was right about that statement. But she's such a humble and modest person that it was nice to hear her express how much she believes in her own abilities. Going into the final, Sabalenka led the head to head 4-0. But every match they'd ever played had gone 3 sets. That's why it was no surprise that the women's final was, in my opinion, a much more exciting watch than the men's final. Elena came back from a break deficit in the first set and also saved multiple set points in what would end up being a 17-minute tiebreak. As strong of servers as these two women are, they each had a lot of opportunities to break. Part of that was due to the slower conditions, giving them more time to react when returning. The other part was due to nerves. With players as aggressive-minded as Elena and Aryna, you're going to get nerves no matter what. They're the two women who are always deciding the fates of their matches. They'll either blow you off the court or they'll make errors, but it's always on their terms.
We saw a bit of Aryna reverting to old habits in this match, particularly with the double faults during critical moments. But much of that was due to the pressure Elena was putting on her throughout the whole match. Aryna is a very powerful server. But I wouldn't say her serving is as consistent or accurate as Rybakina's. Elena can really pick her targets and get great placement on her serve, day in and day out. That's what makes her the most effective server on the WTA tour. The Kazakh can trust in the fact that her serve is more than just power, it's a sword that's been so immaculately sharpened that it gleams. And she can pull it out anytime she chooses. I don't believe Sabalenka has that same comfort in her serve. Even when she's serving very well, like at the Australian Open, the effectiveness of her serve came from overwhelming power. If I were serving in a big final, I would much prefer to have great variety and accuracy on my serve than mainly just overwhelming pace. There's something to be said about knowing you can rely on a certain skill. You've hit the targets in practice, you don't have to force extra power, and it's just second nature. That's Elena Rybakina's serve. It feels as though it's as comfortable as breathing for her. Elena didn't even serve at a high first serve percentage in the final, but she was able to trust her second serve in a way that Aryna did not. Rybakina's second serve was well placed and had a good enough amount of pace on it that it wasn't super attackable. On the other hand, Sabalenka didn't have that belief in her second serve. When the pressure was on, she often went for bigger second serves than she felt comfortable hitting. Elena was crushing Sabalenka's second serves if they didn't have enough pace on them, and this forced Aryna to doubt herself and all the progress she made on her serve since last year.
The drama and tension in this match was worthy of the final that I believe we all desperately wanted. Whether you're a fan of Elena or Aryna, I'm pretty sure you enjoyed this one, regardless of the result. These two women are the best tennis players on the planet so far in 2023. The season is still young, but it's been a joy to watch each of them grow so rapidly. Each of them has all the weapons in the world at their disposal and can be unstoppable. But this match highlighted the most fascinating thing about our sport. Tennis is a mental game. No matter how the power, serving, and athleticism develops in the future, tennis will always be a battle of mentality. You can have all the skills in the world, but you have to have the mental strength to push yourself over the line in the tough moments. That's the way the sport has always been and it's the way it will always be played. And that's why Elena Rybakina deserves to be our 2023 Indian Wells Champion.
Men’s Final
Moving onto the men's final, I was taken aback by just how lopsided the match was. I had a feeling Carlos Alcaraz would win. But if I really thought about it, I also could've very easily imagined Daniil Medvedev winning the title as well. Daniil came into this tournament with an abundance of confidence. He had won Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai consecutively. But he had also beaten Novak Djokovic in straight sets, snapping Novak's 20-match win streak in the process. So he hadn't just won the biggest titles available for the taking over the past month, he also beat one of the best players in the world. He also came into this final on a 19-match win streak. I think that's why the score was so shocking (6-3, 6-2). But Carlos' skill set and athleticism at the age of 19 are second to none. He hits such a heavy forehand that one can only compare to Rafa Nadal. Alcaraz gets so much topspin and racquet head acceleration on every single forehand he hits. The result is a grueling and blistering shot that jumps at his opponents with tremendous pace. The young Spaniard used his forehand to devastate Medvedev from start to finish. He pulled the trigger in rallies quite early, especially considering how slow the courts are. But when you play against someone like Daniil who's main objective is to make you hit a million shots, what's the point in waiting? If you have the rocket launcher of a forehand that Alcaraz possesses and you have the opportunity, take it... over and over again. Carlos took every opportunity Daniil gave him and made opportunities out of unlikely situations. He crushed a good number of Medvedev's first serves to the degree that I'm sure made Daniil uncomfortable and probably a little embarrassed. When you have the world's most gifted teenager on the planet obliterating Daniil Medvedev's serve (which is a very big weapon in men's tennis) as if he's returning a junior's serve, that's when you know you're witnessing something fascinatingly rare.
As well as Carlos played, it must be said that Daniil really struggled with many aspects of his game. A lot of the struggles were due to Carlos' perfection on the court. But there were some things in Medvedev's game that were just subpar and not anywhere near where they had to be if he wanted to walk away with the title. Firstly, Daniil looked frazzled right after he got broken at the start of the first set. Carlos came out swinging and caught him by surprise. But we know that Daniil knows how good Carlos is.
"If this guy is on fire, what can you do? In Madrid, when he beat Rafa and Novak back to back on clay, that’s amazing at 18 years-old. He has amazing skills and knows how to use them. Then the question comes, does he win 10 slams, 5, or 23 and maybe he beats the record?”
Medvedev was well aware of the greatness he was up against. So when Alcaraz ran out the gates playing perfect tennis, Daniil had to dig in. He had to make more first serves and he had to try some different things, tactically. I recognize that he doesn't have the same variety in his game that Alcaraz does, but that shouldn't stop him from trying - especially when he was getting blown off the court the way he was. Medvedev was insistent on hitting the same ball he always does - a flat, off-pace rally ball that's sole purpose is to grind, frustrate, and force his opponents into long exchanges. The Spanish teenager was in no mood to rally. He was teeing off on Daniil's groundstrokes from every area of the court and hitting winners from everywhere. When someone is playing as phenomenally as Carlos was, you have two options:
• Bow down to his greatness and swallow defeat.
• Try to challenge him. You might not win, but at least you tried everything.
I respect Daniil Medvedev so much. He has one of the most unique games we've ever seen on the men's side and he's also one of the most hilariously honest athletes I've ever seen. His tennis is superb, no question. He proved that when he won the US Open, when he reached world #1, and during this past month when he won 3 titles and 19 consecutive matches. I believe he can beat anyone in the world, including Carlos, but this court was always going to be a tough place to do it. As he said on numerous occasions this week, the courts are some of the slowest out there. This gave Carlos even more time to set up and attack Daniil's mid-paced groundstrokes. Carlos' powerful and greatly varied game has the ability to make anyone's game look extraordinarily one-dimensional when he's in form like this. But it will be interesting to watch these two face off on a faster hard court while they're both in great form (like they are now). My biggest takeaways from this week:
• Daniil Medvedev can argue his way through anything, even the slow courts at Indian Wells.
• Carlos Alcaraz will be a legend, sooner rather than later.
Thx for your newsletter I enjoy it as I’m a tennis nut. But…Rybakina isn’t a Kazakh —as you state. She’s born and raised in Moscow. Yea—she plays for K, but that was all to get more $$. She’s 100% Russian.