Miami Open 2023: The Sweet Sixteen - Issue #30

The Miami Open is getting down to the wire. Will Rybakina complete the Sunshine Double? Can Sabalenka overcome Krejčíková? Can Pegula win on home soil? Here's our breakdown of the last 16 women left.

Written by Dove Sallow

We're officially moving into week 2 of the Miami Open. It's crazy to think that the Sunshine Double is almost over! We've seen withdrawals, upsets, comebacks, and most importantly... a lot of world class tennis. This week, we're taking a look at all of the women's Round of 16 matches in Miami.

Jeļena Ostapenko vs. Martina Trevisan

When I say that the rest of the WTA Tour was relieved when they heard that Iga Świątek withdrew from Miami, I can promise you that no one was more pleased than Martina Trevisan. She was able to take advantage of a very rare opportunity in the draw by surviving a tight match against Claire Liu in the 3rd round. Martina is definitely more comfortable on a clay court, but she always fights, no matter what surface she's on. But her magical run will likely end tomorrow at the hands of Ostapenko. Jelena came through a tough test against Beatriz Haddad Maia in her 3rd round match where she was down a break in the final set. Jeļena is playing confident tennis this year and it's shown in her results. The Latvian hits one of the most powerful and arguably the cleanest of balls on tour. The courts in Miami are playing very fast. I would be pretty shocked if Jeļena doesn't win this match comfortably. Her serve has drastically improved this year and she's one of the most aggressive returners. Trevisan's serve will be punished relentlessly and Ostapenko will dominate the baseline rallies. It's been nice to see Jeļena find her form again. We all know she still has the talent to win slams. But with her, it's about staying consistent. A win tomorrow would be another step in the right direction.

Elena Rybakina vs. Elise Mertens

This is an interesting matchup on paper. Elena is obviously the best player on the planet right now and is currently on a 10-match win streak. She reached the final of the only slam that's been played so far in 2023 (Australian Open) and won the 2nd biggest title that the year's had to offer (Indian Wells). I was amazed at how well she played on the slow, gritty courts in the desert. It just goes to show that her weapons are so great that she might just be able to hit through any surface she plays on. Elena hasn't looked quite as sharp in Miami, but there's always an adjustment period when adapting to such drastically different conditions. Oddly, I think she finally got acclimated to the conditions towards the end of her match against Paula Badosa in the 3rd round. When she saved match point against Paula and won the 2nd set, it felt like something clicked. Elena played a fantastic 3rd set and looked the most comfortable she's looked so far in this tournament. On the other hand, Mertens has been out of form these last couple of years, but seems to have found the consistency that she's built her entire career on. She came through a close match against Daria Kasatkina in the 2nd round and hasn't looked back since. Mertens doesn't have any big weapons, but she does a lot of things very well. Most importantly, she's always intelligent on the court. But Rybakina will likely be too much for her to handle. Elise would have to serve her very best to be able to hang in there with Elena. She has the tools to disrupt Rybakina, but Rybakina would have to suffer a dip in form. The Kazakh will look to play first strike tennis with her serve and big groundstrokes. If Elena is able to play at the level she did in that 3rd set against Badosa, she has a good shot at winning the Sunshine Double.

Jessica Pegula vs. Magda Linette

Jessica Pegula is a name that I'm not at all surprised to see left in the draw. She's been making deep runs in basically every tournament she's played for the last 2 years. The thing I love about Jess is that she offers a different game style to the top of women's tennis. With so many big hitters and big servers, it's nice to have a steady and reliable player like Pegula who plays the percentages. She hits flat, reasonably hard groundstrokes that always seem to land deep in the court. The sole purpose of her groundstrokes is not to hit winners - it's to draw errors. I like her mindset and respect her work ethic a lot. She beat Danielle Collins in the 3rd round in what was a strange match. Danielle was nowhere near her best, but started to find her groove in the 2nd set. Pegula was simply the steadier and more reliable player, which is often the case in her matches. She'll face Magda Linette, who had a very different path to the round of 16. She knocked out two-time Grand Slam champion, Victoria Azarenka, in a whirlwind 3-set match. Vika actually served for the first set, but Magda was able to come up with her best tennis in the big moments. She seems to be doing a lot of that this year. Her run to the Australian Open Semifinal is something I'll never forget. As great of a competitor as Magda is, she really has her work cut out for her against Jess. Pegula will definitely try to attack Magda's second serve and keep her on the back foot. Both players have great backhands, but Pegula's is steadier and she's more comfortable taking it down the line. Magda has the ability to win this if she plays her absolute best. But with Pegula's consistency, she has to be the favorite to win this match.

Qinwen Zheng vs. Anastasia Potapova

These are two of the most promising young talents on the WTA Tour. Needless to say, this match is going to be fun to watch. Qinwen might be the most naturally athletic woman I've ever seen in women's tennis. She slides around on hard courts like it's easy and she's able to generate tremendous racquet head speed on her forehand wing that isn't seen much in the women's game. Zheng's serve is already massive and it's going to get even bigger. She suffered an injury just before Indian Wells and had to withdraw because of it. She played a rocky first set against Irina Camelia Begu in the 1st round in Miami, but blew her off the court in the next 2 sets. Qinwen was able to topple Liudmila Samsonova in her next match, which was one of the matches of the tournament so far. She'll face Anastasia Potapova next, who also survived a tight match to get here. Potapova played some inspiring tennis against Coco Gauff to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the tournament. Gauff served for the match at 5-3 in the 2nd set, but Potapova just kept swinging freely and going for her shots. To be frank, Potapova played to win while Coco played not to lose. Gauff was far too passive and became reliant on hoping Potapova would make mistakes. Coco invited Anastasia to take the match out of her hands and that's exactly what she did. Her groundstrokes overwhelmed Gauff and she hit some flashy backhand winners. Potapova is a great player and has made huge strides in these last few months alone, but I think Qinwen just has more going for her game. While Potapova likes to be aggressive when returning serve, Zheng's serve is not very attackable. On top of that, Qinwen is a better mover and can maneuver the ball around the court in ways that will challenge Anastasia at this stage. These are two very talented young women that I'm happy to see deep in the draw, but Qinwen will be a tough out for anyone.

Bianca Andreescu vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

These are two players you might be surprised to see in the round of 16. But at the same time, is it that surprising? Bianca is a former US Open Champion and Alexandrova is #18 in the world. Bianca took out some big names in her first two matches. Starting with Emma Raducanu in the 1st round, Bianca came out with a lot of firepower. It was abundantly clear within the first few games that she was going to be the one dictating the rallies. Her level was a bit up and down throughout the match, but she was able to pull off the win. In the 2nd round, Andreescu beat Maria Sakkari in a 3-set slug fest. Bianca's lost a lot of close matches to top players these last few years, so maybe this marked a turning point. She went on to beat Sofia Kenin in the 3rd round in straight sets. None of the big name players Bianca faced are in particularly great form, but Bianca has a ton of self-belief and mental strength. She finds a little extra belief whenever she really needs it, and that's why she's here. Even though she hasn't been at her best these last few years, she's a great competitor and plays with a ton of heart. On the other hand, Alexandrova just beat one of the most in form players of 2023 in Belinda Bencic. Belinda has already won 2 titles this year and has been playing some of her best tennis. But Alexandrova came out playing her aggressive brand of tennis. She's a bit of a confusing player, because she has big weapons and is able to beat anyone in the world. But she's also very capable of losing to anyone in the world. She's one of the streakiest players on tour. But when she plays the way she did against Bencic, it's hard for her opponents to have time to react. Bencic was constantly on the back foot and was always reacting to what Alexandrova was doing. Ekaterina's returns were so deep and forceful that Bencic looked awkward for a large portion of the match. Against Bianca, Alexandrova will hope to do more of the same. If Bianca approaches this match with the mindset of trying to overpower Alexandrova from the baseline, I don't see her winning it. But if Bianca uses some of the drop shots, angles, and variety that we all know she's capable of, she could come out on top. However, Bianca used a lot more variety in her game a few years ago than she does now. Similarly to Alexandrova, her game is largely built on aggression and first strike tennis. Alexandrova just  does it better when she's at her best. This match could go either way, but Alexandrova looks more convincing.

Petra Kvitová vs. Varvara Gracheva

Petra has been slowly building momentum this year and is finding the form that made her a two-time Wimbledon Champion. She had a stunning run to the Indian Wells Quarterfinals last week, where she beat current world #3, Jessica Pegula. She saved 4 match points in true Petra fashion - by playing fearless tennis. En route to the quarterfinal, Petra also defeated fellow Grand Slam Champion, Jeļena Ostapenko, in one of the strangest matches of the season (0-6, 6-0, 6-4). Petra has had a reasonably tough draw to make it this far in Miami. She faced her younger compatriot, Linda Nosková, in the 2nd round and won comfortably. In the 3rd round, she defeated Donna Vekić in what ended up being a much closer match (6-4, 7-6). She'll face Varvara Gracheva next, who has been having a break out season this year. Gracheva has beaten world #8, Daria Kasatkina, twice this year without dropping a set. She also reached the final of a WTA 250 in Austin, where she lost to Marta Kostyuk. Gracheva defeated world #5, Ons Jabeur, in the 2nd round in Miami. It must be said that Ons hasn't gotten back to her best since coming back from surgery. But Gracheva still played some of her best tennis. She likes to hit hard and flat from the baseline. Unfortunately for her, Petra does it better. The Czech hits harder and also has a stronger serve. Petra looks poised for another quarterfinal.

Sorana Cîrstea vs. Markéta Vondroušová

Out of all the big names in this section of the draw, Sorana and Markéta prevailed. Results like these are why women's tennis is one of the most fascinating sports in the world. The game is always changing and there's always someone else willing to step up and come up with some big results. Cîrstea came through a particularly tough draw. The Romanian defeated Caroline Garcia (for the 2nd time in the past week) in the 2nd round and knocked out Karolína Muchová in the 3rd round. Cîrstea's aggressive game translates well onto the slick, quick courts of Miami. She's been able to bully her way through some great players these last few weeks by pushing her opponents behind the baseline with her fearless hitting. Her next opponent, Vondroušová, also came through some tough players. She defeated Veronika Kudermetova in the 2nd round and Karolina Plíšková in the 3rd round, all without dropping a set. She was particularly lethal against Plíšková, dropping only 3 games. That's not an easy thing to do against a server like Karolína. Markéta used her variety to disrupt Karolína's rhythm from the baseline. She got a lot of returns in play and made Karolína very uncomfortable on the court. Markéta has long been one of the best disruptors in the women's game. Sorana is in great form, but Markéta enjoys playing big hitters/risk takers like Cîrstea. This could go either way, but I think Markéta is going to throw everything at her. The Czech has a terrific drop shot and can produce drastic lefty angles. She'll use these tools to pull Cîrstea off the baseline and get her out of her comfort zone.

Barbora Krejčíková vs. Aryna Sabalenka

This is definitely going to be the match of the day. These two have already played against each other twice this year and both matches went three sets. They are two of the four women that I believe have a great shot at dominating women's tennis over the next few years (along with Elena Rybakina and Iga Świątek). Krejčíková defeated one of the biggest hitters on tour in her 3rd round against Madison Keys. This was an ideal match for the Czech to play ahead of facing Sabalenka. Obviously, Aryna is playing at a higher level than Keys right now. But this match gave Barbora a taste of what Aryna's shots will feel like in the Miami conditions. Apart from some nerves in the 1st set, Barbora looked very solid. Sabalenka faced Shelby Rogers in her 2nd round match and Marie Bouzková in the 3rd round. Against Shelby, Aryna appeared to have injured her leg. Thankfully, it looks like she had a quick recovery. She was moving comfortably around the court against Bouzková. Aryna's powerful game has been at its peak this year. She now has an Australian Open title to her name and looks hungry for more. When these two played in Dubai, Barbora recovered from a 0-6, 1-3 deficit to win the match. When they met last week at Indian Wells, Aryna won 6-4 in the final set. I expect this match to be another 3-set epic. Aryna is one of the most in form players in the world right now, but Barbora has the type of game that can make her doubt herself. When Aryna doubts herself, she sprays errors. That's what happened in Dubai. It's difficult to say who will win this one. I'm going to go with Krejčíková because she just has a lot more options on court. Krejčíková has the ability to mix in different paces and spins in the rallies. If the match gets close, I can see Aryna getting frustrated with that.