Race to the 2022 WTA Finals - Issue #5

A deep dive into the complicated race to the 2022 WTA Finals in Fort Worth, Texas.

Written by Dove Sallow

This year has been an eventful one in the world of WTA, and the grand slam season is officially over. But with the year-end finals coming up in Fort Worth, Texas (October 31 - November 7), there is still much to play for. Current world #1 Iga Swiatek and #2 Ons Jabuer have already qualified, so that leaves six highly coveted spots up for grabs.

Jessica Pegula is 3rd in the race with 3232 points. She’s had a remarkably consistent year and is a good distance ahead of #4 Coco Gauff, who has 2983 points. This is where it gets tricky - there are only 486 points between #4 (Gauff) and #8 (Veronika Kudermetova). Simona Halep is actually #8 in the race, but announced she is not playing for the rest of the season - so Kudermetova moves to the 8th slot in the live race. 486 points is an incredibly small margin between 4th and 8th place, and perhaps even more surprising is that #10 through #18 still have the opportunity to qualify. Listed from #10 to #18, Maria Sakkari, Paula Badosa, Belinda Bencic, Madison Keys, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Danielle Collins, Petra Kvitova, Anett Kontaveit, and Jelena Ostapenko all still have the opportunity to earn a lot of points in the coming weeks. But let’s take a look at who is most likely to qualify based on current form.

Caroline Garcia

Caroline Garcia is 5th in the race and technically has a very good chance to qualify for the WTA Finals. She has 2896 points and has had a fantastic second half of 2022. The former world #4 has re-enlisted her father as her coach and is back in the top 10. She won the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati and also made the semifinals of the US Open. Many were looking at her as the favorite to win the title, but she showed up completely flat against Ons Jabuer. Her serve wasn’t where it needed to be and she was spraying uncharacteristic errors all over the place. Her greatest asset is her return of serve. She stands 3 feet inside the baseline to return first serves… and she does it well. But things stopped clicking for some reason in the semifinals of New York. She played a WTA 500 in Tokyo and lost in the second round to Shuai Zhang (4-6, 7-6, 7-6). Garcia has admirably fought her way back to the top of the sport, but she seems to be erratic with her form. When she’s at her best, I truly believe she’s unstoppable. But from what I’ve seen in her last two matches, she looks to be regressing once again. Her game style is risky - it’s all about timing. She returned some of Coco Gauff’s 120 mph serves with ease, standing 3 feet inside the baseline at the US Open. But as we’re now seeing, it’s difficult to play that style of tennis consistently well. High risk - high reward. If she’s able to find her form again in the coming weeks, she will be rewarded with a spot in the WTA Finals. Based on what I’ve seen in her last two matches, I don’t see her making a deep run in San Diego or Guadalajara.

Maria Sakkari

Maria Sakkari is currently 10th in the race (#9 with Simona Halep out) and has accumulated 2387 points. In theory, she would have a pretty good shot at knocking Gauff out of 4th place, with the indoor hard court season coming up and a WTA 1000 in Guadalajara. Sakkari’s powerful game is quite good on indoor hard courts and she made the semifinals of the year-end finals last year in Guadalajara, so she knows how to handle the tricky conditions. But she’s had an underwhelming year and is shot for confidence. She’s in Parma this week playing a WTA 250 (no doubt trying to pick up points at a tournament void of top competition), but struggled in her opener against current world #124 Kateryna Baindl. Sakkari was able to get the win in a tight three-setter (6-7, 6-2, 6-3). She looked lost on court and was spraying errors all over the place. Her shot selection was questionable throughout the match, but a win is a win. I’m not ruling her out for a deep run in Guadalajara, but based on current form I have to say it’s doubtful she’ll qualify for the year-end finals.

Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa’s year has also been a head-scratcher. With 2264 points, she’s not far from qualifying, but is in dreadful form at the moment. Badosa won a WTA 1000 in Sydney at the start of the year and also made an admirable run to the the Indian Wells semifinals in hopes of defending her 2021 title. The good times strangely stopped there for the Spaniard. The clay court swing was most notably underwhelming for Badosa (very shocking due to clay being her best surface). She was unable to notch more than 2 wins in any tournament in the clay court season. She did make the 4th round at Wimbledon, but sadly received no points for it. She suffered an early exit in the 2nd round of the US Open to Petra Martic and looked deflated to say the least. Most recently, Paula was the #1 seed in Tokyo and went out in the first round to Chinese teenager Qinwen Zheng, 6-3, 6-2. My biggest issue with Badosa is that she doesn’t seem to know how she wants to play anymore. For being 5'11" inches tall, she’s been playing very defensive tennis. She has a pretty big serve but insists on standing 5 feet behind the baseline trying to grind out matches. While she’s quick, her stamina does not seem great. She looked exhausted all season and looks like she needs a break. She is playing in Ostrava next week, but will need to play more aggressive tennis to have a shot at earning a decent amount of points on those fast indoor hard courts. She is also set to play in San Diego and Guadalajara in the coming weeks. Paula is capable of tremendous tennis, but as it stands, I don’t think we’ll be seeing her in the WTA Finals.

Belinda Bencic

Belinda Bencic has 2226 points and is having the best year she’s had in a long time. She won a WTA 500 in Charleston (first clay court title of her career), and the final of Berlin, as well as the semifinals of Miami. She has not done particularly well in the slams this year, but has had success at top level events on every surface. She is currently playing in Estonia’s first-ever WTA 250 event in Tallinn. She blitzed through her opener against Elena Malygina 6-0, 6-2 and will face Katie Boulter next. Luckily for Bencic, there are a few indoor and hard court events coming up - and she is always capable of making a deep run on hard courts. She proved this at the Tokyo Olympics last year, where she won the Gold. Bencic takes the ball extremely early and takes time away from her opponents, making her game well-suited to hard courts. In addition to the event in Tallinn, she is set to play in Ostrava and Guadalajara. I wouldn’t entirely rule her out of qualifying for the year-end finals, but her random hard court tears she goes on are just that - random. She’s capable of a big run in the coming weeks, but whether that sparkling hard court form will show up in time is a guessing game.

Madison Keys

Madison Keys has 2214 points and had quite the resurgence this year. Her level at the Australian Open was jaw-dropping. She made the semifinals and lost to eventual champion Ash Barty, but I believe she might’ve won her first grand slam if Barty had not been in the draw. Keys won the title in Adelaide three weeks prior to the Australian Open and also made the semifinals in Cincinnati. While Keys has played incredibly well on and off throughout the year, she looks to be in one of her “off” phases at the moment. She lost in the first round of Tallinn this morning to Viktorija Golubic. In fact, Keys lost in straight sets to Golubic in their last three meetings. With Tallinn being an indoor hard court event and the WTA Finals on the horizon, you would think Keys would’ve stepped it up for this match. Her best tennis is excellent, but Keys doesn’t seem to be in control of when that excellence becomes a factor in important matches. She is playing in San Diego as well as Guadalajara, but I don’t think she’ll do well in Guadalajara. The altitude in Guadalajara makes the balls fly if you’re not used to the conditions. Does anyone remember Sabalenka last year at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara? She was playing baseball. I’m sensing a similar scenario for Keys in Guadalajara, and that’s the tournament with the most points available. I’m ruling her out for the WTA Finals this year, but I would give her a better shot than Sakkari or Badosa.

Beatriz Haddad Maia

Beatriz Haddad Maia has 2015 points and has had an impeccable year. She made the final of the WTA 1000 in Toronto, won two events on grass, and also won Saint Malo on clay. Many were expecting her to do well at Wimbledon after she put together an impressive 12-match win streak, but she lost in the first round to Kaja Juvan. Haddad Maia has not performed well in the slams, but loves to compete and grinds her way through tight matches. She is what I would call a power-grinder (if there is such a thing). She can wear down her opponents with grueling rallies and she can also hit the ball with serious power. Her results have been less impressive the last few weeks, but I expect a deep run in Guadalajara. She is playing in Tallinn this week, but I don’t imagine her doing particularly well on indoor hard courts. Guadalajara’s tricky conditions make adaptability very important. Haddad Maia has the ability to play a variety of different ways, so I think she has a good shot at qualifying for the year-end finals.

Danielle Collins

Danielle Collins has 1997 points and has had an up and down year. Her magical run to the Australian Open final was very special, but her form dipped drastically as the season went on. Her powerful game is great when it’s on, but when she’s having a bad day she doesn’t have a plan B. While I’m a fan of Collins and her competitive spirit, I don’t think she’ll qualify for the WTA Finals this year. She is playing in San Diego as well as Guadalajara, but it’s been a struggle for her the last few months. That being said, I hope she proves me wrong. She has a rare fighting quality about her that makes her dangerous. If she gets hot, you never know what could happen. But time is running out to qualify and I just don’t see it happening.

Petra Kvitova

Petra Kvitova is not far behind with 1939 points. She had an atrocious start to 2022, but really started to find her footing in the grass court swing. She won a WTA 500 in Eastbourne (grass) and made the finals of WTA 1000 Cincinnati (hard court). She also made the 4th round at the US Open before falling to Jessica Pegula in straight sets. Kvitova is a remarkable tennis player as well as a remarkable person. She is as gracious in defeats as she is in victories. She is playing in San Diego as well as Guadalajara. I imagine she will have problems with the altitude in Guadalajara, but Petra often surprises me. She could either lose first round or win the whole thing. Will she qualify for the WTA Finals? Only Petra knows. And that’s the way we like it.

Anett Kontaveit

Anett Kontaveit is only 26 points behind at 1913. After having a fantastic end to 2021, Anett has had a tough year. She started off quite well, winning a WTA 500 in Saint Petersburg. But things took a turn for the worse when she caught long Covid. Since then, she’s struggled to win matches and hasn’t seemed entirely confident. Her stamina was gassed during the entire clay and grass swings due to Covid symptoms. She said she was fully recovered in Hamburg and made the final, but still has not been near the glimmering form she was in at the end of last year. She looked quite decent in her match against Serena Williams at the US Open, but the circumstances and significance of that match seemed to weigh heavily on her shoulders. Luckily for Anett, she’s playing in her home event this week in Tallinn, Estonia. Even more luckily for her, it’s an indoor event. Anett has won 28 of her last 29 indoor hard court matches. She plays first strike tennis and her game is built on quick 1-2 combinations. Plainly stated, her game is made for indoor hard courts. The indoor swing last year was what propelled her ranking to #2 in the world and allowed her to qualify for the WTA Finals where she was the runner-up. Although she’s been struggling for form, she is playing in two indoor hard court events (Tallinn and Ostrava) as well as two hard court events in San Diego and Guadalajara. With Tallinn being her home tournament as well as an indoor event, Anett is the clear favorite to win the title. Her indoor record is the best we’ve seen in years. She won the title in Ostrava last year, but the field is stacked. World #1 Iga Swiatek is slated to play, so it will be an uphill battle to win the title. But with her indoor hard court pedigree, Anett will surely make a deep run. Being a finalist at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara last year could play a huge factor for Anett Kontaveit. She managed the tricky conditions beautifully last year and will have an edge over the rest of the field at the WTA 1000 in Guadalajara coming up in a few weeks time. As I stated before, playing tennis in Guadalajara is about who can manage the conditions, and Anett proved she’s more than capable last year. I expect her to pick up a lot of points in the coming weeks and qualify for the year-end finals for the second year in a row.

Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko has 1882 points and could theoretically still qualify. She’s had a pretty solid year, winning the title in Dubai and making the finals of Eastbourne. Most recently, Ostapenko made the final in Seoul, Korea, where she fell to Ekaterina Alexandrova 7-6, 6-0. She suffered an injury during the match which explains the bagel. Jelena is playing in Tallinn this week, but the field is stacked and she is set to face giant-slayer and home-crowd favorite Kaia Kanepi in the first round. On top of that, Jelena is not known for her stamina. Due to the deep run and injury she suffered in Korea, I don’t see her picking up many points in Tallinn. If she recovers in time for Ostrava, she will face a tough field. Iga Swiatek and Anett Kontaveit will be particularly tough to beat, but the field also features Karolina Pliskova, Victoria Azarenka, Elena Rybakina, Beatriz Haddad Maia, and Belinda Bencic. The way I see it, Ostapenko would have to recover from her injury quickly and try to make a deep run in Guadalajara. But with her ability to spray unforced errors when she’s not entirely comfortable on court, I don’t see her adapting to the altitude in Guadalajara well. I’m ruling her out for the WTA Finals this year.

Predictions for the WTA Finals 2022:

Iga Swiatek

Ons Jabuer

Jessica Pegula

Coco Gauff

Aryna Sabalenka

Veronika Kudermetova

Anett Kontaveit

Beatriz Haddad Maia