The ATP Finals Have Arrived - Issue #12

A rundown and in-depth look at all eight singles players in this years Nitto ATP Finals.

Written by Dove Sallow

With the 2022 season coming to an end, the Nitto ATP Finals have finally arrived. Let’s take a look at the eight men who qualified for the Year End Championships YEC (year-end championships) in Turin.

Rafa Nadal

Rafael Nadal. This man needs no introduction. The Spaniard is currently ranked 2 in the world, but due to Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal, Rafa is the number 1 seed in Turin. He started off the year remarkably well, winning two grand slams (Australian Open and Roland Garros) and going 20-0 for his first 20 matches of the year. This is the 3rd best start to a season in ATP history. First of all, I don’t think anyone expected Rafa to be healthy enough to achieve all that he did in 2022. This season has been a testament to his tenacity and fighting spirit that will go down unmatched in the history books. Even though he’s already lost his first match in Turin to Taylor Fritz, you can’t ever count Rafa out. He looked a bit rusty and in need of match play, but there were some positives to take from the match. His serve speed was up to around 120 mph today (it was averaging about 100 mph in his loss to Tommy Paul at the Paris Masters); his movement looked sharp, and his fighting spirit is still there. He’s never done well at this event, due to the low bouncing surface, but Rafa will definitely improve with each match he plays. The more matches he gets, the more dangerous he becomes.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the #3 player in the world and the #2 seed in Turin. He’s had a solid season, winning 2 titles (Monte Carlo and Mallorca), with the latter being a bit of a surprise. Mallorca is played on grass, which is not known for being Tsitsipas’ strongest surface. But he’s improving with each year and has solidified himself as one of the most consistent men at the top of the sport. He’s improved his backhand immensely and worked on his transition game. His attacking game should work well on the indoor hard courts of Turin. He played a firecracker of a match against Novak Djokovic last week in the semifinals of the Paris Masters, where he lost in a third set tie break. But he played a beautiful match and pushed Novak to his limit - something that’s pretty impossible to do on an indoor hardcourt. If Stefanos can muster up that kind of form in Turin, he’ll be a real threat.

Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud is the current world #4 and has already pulled off a pretty big win in Turin. He defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime in his first match, 7-6(4), 6-4. To give you an idea of the level Felix is capable of producing indoors, he had won 16 of his last 17 matches before he met Ruud in Turin, defeating the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune in the process. This was a massive win for Ruud. Many are quick to dub Ruud a clay court specialist, but he continues to prove that he’s more than capable on a fast court. He now has a US Open final to his name to prove it. Even though he lost that final to Carlos Alcaraz, the improvements he’s made in his game were on full display. He’s been more aggressive this year on the fast courts, looking to attack with his forehand. He’s also been getting more mileage out of his serve. His game is by no means the biggest on tour, but he’s quick on his feet and efficient with every shot he hits. Don’t count him out, he’s been overachieving all year.

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev, current world #5, has had a strange 2022. He started off the year like a race horse in full stride, making the final of the Australian Open. He lost to the great Rafa Nadal, where he was leading 2 sets to love and had several break points in the third. But Rafa did what Rafa does - he fought, scraped, and clawed his way back from the depths of defeat to win his 21st grand slam (he now has the record of 22 after winning Roland Garros). Daniil has not looked the same since this loss. In the press conference after the match, he memorably said “the kid stopped dreaming today”, referring to the lack of support he felt from the crowd. It’s hard not to feel for him. Losing a match in that manner does things to an athletes mental state. Regardless, he remains one of the best players in the world. With his flat groundstrokes and uncanny ability to run down every ball sent his way, he’s a nightmare to play - especially on indoor hard courts. He has a massive serve and his ball skids on this low bouncing surface. He’s won two titles this year (Los Cabos and Vienna), with the latter being on indoor hard courts. This will give him confidence heading into this tournament. If he can get his serve firing again the way it was when he won the US Open, he can win the YEC.

Félix Auger-Aliassime

Felix Auger-Aliassime is currently ranked 6 in the world and is riding the winds of an indoor hard court winning streak that came to an end last week at the Paris Masters, where he lost in the semifinals to eventual champion Holger Rune. Felix has been one of the tour’s most promising talents for the last few years. He has a massive serve and can rip his groundstrokes as well as anyone when he’s at his best. When his first-strike tennis is on, his game is effortlessly beautiful to watch. He’s won 4 indoor hard court tournaments this year (Rotterdam, Florence, Antwerp, and Basel), where he defeated the likes of Andy Murray, Andrey Rublev, Cam Norrie, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, and current world #1 Carlos Alcaraz. That’s an impressive hit list by any standard. That being said, he did not bring his best tennis in his opening match against Casper Ruud. Casper was efficient and solid, but Felix never looked fully comfortable on the court. I still expect him to find his rhythm and make a deep run in Turin.

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev has been wonderfully consistent these last few years. The world #7 has had a good year, but I still can’t help feeling that he’s capable of achieving so much more. He’s won 4 titles this year (Marseille, Dubai, Belgrade, and Gijon), but unfortunately, he was playing at a higher level in the first half of the season. He’s had some good wins, but he’s also had quite a few shocking losses in the last few months (Basilashvili, Baez, Cerundolo, Nishioka, Evans, Dimitrov, etc.) While these are great players, you’d expect Rublev to come out on top in most of these matches. He will hope to finish the year strong at the YEC. He bludgeons the ball from the baseline and hits one of the flatter balls on tour. The conditions in Turin are definitely suited to his game. He has the raw materials. Can he string it all together and find his best tennis this week? Your guess is as good as mine.

Novak Djokovic

Current world #8, Novak Djokovic, has had a challenging year, to say the least. He was banned from competing at the Australian Open, as well as the US Open. Regardless of your opinion on his vaccination views, it’s always disappointing when the world’s best players are absent from the biggest stages in tennis. Djokovic started off the year a bit sluggish, understandably. But he started to pick up steam as the clay-court season approached. He won Rome in ruthless fashion - without dropping a set. He lost a tough match to Rafa in the Roland Garros quarterfinal, but he came back stronger than ever to win his 21st grand slam title at Wimbledon. While Djokovic is one of the best players on every surface, he does particularly well on fast courts. He hits the ball a bit flatter than some of his peers and still manages to make his world-class defensive abilities a serious challenge for his opponents on the faster surfaces. He reached the final last week at the Paris Masters, where he lost to 19 year old Holger Rune in three sets. He lost to the better player that day, and a star was born in Holger Rune. But Djokovic still looked very sharp. We all know that the #8 next to his ranking means absolutely nothing - he is the favorite in Turin this year.

Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz is currently ranked #9 in the world and has been one of the breakout players of 2022. Winning Indian Wells was a massive accomplishment, but what’s been more impressive is how he’s been able to keep that same level throughout the year. His clay court season wasn’t great, but he won Eastbourne as well as Tokyo. Fritz almost missed out on this event, but due to Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal, he moved up to the 8th, and final position to qualify. He’s certainly making the most of it - he defeated Rafa Nadal in his opener. While Rafa looked a bit rusty, nothing can be taken away from Fritz. He served beautifully and was able to dictate for most of the match. Fritz has serious weapons (forehand, serve) that are maximized on a fast court like Turin. He looks as confident as ever and is making the most of his late qualification. He’s unafraid of the biggest names in tennis - expect him to cause some more upsets.

Prediction:

Daniil Medvedev defeats Felix Auger-Aliassime.

While Daniil has not been at his best this year, I expect the defending champ to find his footing in Turin. Out of all 8 men in the draw, Daniil’s game is perhaps best suited to the conditions. While Djokovic and Aliassime are more in-form, Daniil still has the edge if he can find his serve. One thing that sets him apart from Ruud, Tsitsipas, Fritz, Rublev, and Aliassime is that he seems to consistently play his best tennis against the very best players in the world. Daniil is a big match player. While the field is tough, I give him the edge on these courts if he finds his top form.