WTA Dubai 2023 Draw Analysis - Issue #26
This week, we're taking a look at players who might (or might not) cause some trouble in Dubai.
Written by Dove Sallow
The WTA has been in the Middle East the last few weeks and I have to say, we've been treated to some spectacular tennis. Belinda Bencic won the title in Abu Dhabi. Iga Świątek got back to her winning ways in Doha. This week, we're taking a look at players who might (or might not) cause some trouble in Dubai.
Iga Świątek
Iga Świątek is the #1 seed (duh) and for good reason. She started her season looking a bit off from her usual, domineering ways. She suffered a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Jessica Pegula at the United Cup and a 6-4, 6-4 loss to eventual finalist, Elena Rybakina, in Round 4 of the Australian Open. In both of those matches, Iga was hit off the court. The faster conditions played well to both Pegula and Rybakina's flat and powerful games. Many were wondering what type of form Iga would be in when she arrived in Doha, but those questions were quickly answered. The world #1 dispatched Danielle Collins, Veronika Kudermetova, and Jessica Pegula with ease, losing only 5 games the entire tournament. Much of the difference between her performance at the Australian Open compared to the one in Doha can be attributed to the conditions. The wind in Doha was intense, but Iga has so much margin and safety on her shots that she actually thrived. The courts were slow and gritty, which plays to all of Iga's strengths. But beyond the conditions, she's clearly got her confidence back and has been putting in a lot of work. But Iga's draw is not particularly great. She will face either Liudmila Samsonova or Qinwen Zheng in Round 3. These two are without question the most dangerous players in the draw, apart from Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, and Belinda Bencic. If she gets through that nightmare, she has a likely match against Maria Sakkari - a very winnable match. Despite the tough 3rd Round, Iga has to be considered the favorite in Dubai.
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka, the #2 seed, will have all eyes on her as she takes the court for the first time as a Grand Slam Champion. Aryna's performance in Melbourne was breathtaking. The serve, groundstrokes, return, and mental fortitude all came together in a perfect bundle and clicked for her at the perfect moment - but she made it happen. Aryna has a staggering W/L record of 11-0 this year and will hope to remain undefeated in Dubai. The only set she's lost in 2023 was at the hands of Elena Rybakina. Aryna is the clear favorite in her section of the draw, with Daria Kasatkina being the highest seed in her quarter. But Jelena Ostapenko could be a tough 3rd Round opponent and I would not be shocked if Petra Kvitová upsets Kasatkina. When Aryna is playing near the best of her abilities, she doesn't give her opponents a chance to play their games. But when she's a little off, she gives her opponents a lot of opportunities. We haven't seen Aryna off her game this year. Will she keep up her Grand Slam Champion form? Or will she struggle with the conditions in Dubai? We won't know the answer until she takes the court. And that's the beautiful thing about Aryna Sabalenka.
Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula, the #3 seed, has also had a pretty brilliant start to the year. She lost to Vika Azarenka in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, but before that, she was undefeated. Jess is coming off a Final showing in Doha, where she lost to Iga Świątek. It wasn't Pegula's day, but there's no shame in losing to Iga. And Jess deserves full credit for how well she fought and adapted to the windy conditions throughout the tournament. Pegula has a pretty straightforward draw in Dubai up until the quarterfinals, where she's likely to face Belinda Bencic. If they both make it that far, that'll be one of the matches of the tournament. Both women are in great form and both are tactically brilliant on the court. The thing I like about Pegula is how she's always adapting and always willing to go to plan B. That's what makes her such a threat - she's a problem solver.
Caroline Garcia
Caroline Garcia, the #4 seed, has had a rather sluggish start to the season. She ended the 2022 season with the highest honor - winning the Year End Championships. Caro suffered a 4th Round exit to Magda Linette at the Australian Open. Magda was in great form, but it must be said that Garcia hasn't been at the same level as last year. Caro lost a tight match in the Lyon Final to an inspired Alycia Parks 7-6(7) 7-5. Parks and Garcia both played well, but Parks had the edge on the big points. As great as Parks is, she was not the top 10 player in that match. Ironically, Parks looked like the top 10 player. She managed her emotions and really brought her best level when she needed it. Garcia is missing that spark this season and I'm not quite sure why. She also lost a close match in Doha last week to Maria Sakkari. She's not finding her best tennis at the right moments and it's hurting her. To add salt to the wound, Garcia has a pretty tough early draw. She'll face big-hitting Madison Keys in her first match and could face Victoria Azarenka or Amanda Anisimova in the 3rd Round. Those are two big hitters for a player who's not entirely confident right now. She'd likely face Elena Rybakina or Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals. Caro definitely has the game to beat these players. I'm just not convinced she can do it this week in Dubai.
Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff, the #5 seed, has turned into one of the most consistent performers on the WTA tour. At 18 years of age, being a consistent top 10 player is no small feat. Gauff started off her 2023 season with a title in Auckland - the 3rd of her young career. She suffered a 4th Round loss at the Australian Open to the always unpredictable Jelena Ostapenko. In that match, Coco's serve was not where it needed to be. She found herself constantly defending and on the back foot, which is not how you want to be playing against Ostapenko. The crazy thing about Gauff is that she's so quick around the court that she made a real contest of it (even though she was mainly playing defensive tennis). But when she's at her best, her first serve is firing and she's being aggressive with her backhand. She's added more spin to her forehand, which has helped, but that wing is still her biggest weakness. Coco's draw in Dubai could be tricky. She'll likely face Elena Rybakina in the 3rd Round. With how well Elena has been playing and serving this year, Gauff would have to be serving her best and keeping forehand errors to a minimum. But she's more than capable of doing those things when she's focused.
Maria Sakkari
Maria Sakkari, the #6 seed, has had a subpar start to 2023. The Greek lost to Martina Trevisan at the United Cup and followed that up with a 3rd Round exit to Lin Zhu at the Australian Open. Both of these women are good players with great fighting qualities. But the world #7 should not be losing to either one of them at the start of her year. Maria did play a good match against her friend, Donna Vekić, in Linz. That match was high quality from start to finish and Maria was able to keep her focus throughout the entirety - something she hadn't done in Australia. Unfortunately, she did not keep the same level in the semifinals of Linz, where she lost to Petra Martic. Here's where it gets confusing. Maria comes to Doha (a much tougher field than Linz) and plays the best tennis she's played all year. She beats Qinwen Zheng, Ekaterina Alexandrova, and Caroline Garcia to make the semifinals. Maria lost to Pegula in the semis, but still played some great tennis last week. I find it shocking that she was unable to keep her level high at a 250 event against softer competition. She comes to Doha and beats the greatest young talent WTA has in Qinwen, world #18 Alexandrova, and world #5 Garcia. Sakkari's draw is pretty straightforward. She'll face Karolina Pliskova in her first match. She can beat Karolina, but is also pretty capable of losing. With Anhelina Kalinina defeating Veronika Kudermetova, Sakkari's draw opens up a bit. Maria's form has been so up and down this year that I won't even try to predict how her week in Dubai will go. The one thing I know about Maria Sakkari is that she'll always give it her best effort.
Daria Kasatkina
Daria Kasatkina, the #7 seed, hasn't been able to recapture her 2022 form just yet. She made the final in Adelaide, but was destroyed by Belinda Bencic 6-0, 6-2. Kasatkina followed that up with a 1st Round loss at the Australian Open to Varvara Gracheva 6-1, 6-1. In both of those matches, Kasatkina was blown off the court. She was hitting the ball too short and was unable to do much with her serve. Daria won a match against Jil Teichmann in Abu Dhabi before losing to Qinwen Zheng 6-1, 6-2. She also won a match in Doha last week against Rebecca Marino before losing to Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-3, 7-6(7). Daria is 5-5 (W/L) this year and will hope that changes in Dubai. She'll face Barbora Krejcikova in her first match and will likely face Petra Kvitova in the 3rd Round. Daria is a great athlete with incredible speed and court craft. She will much prefer a match against Krejcikova rather than facing a big hitter. Looking at her draw, a run to the quarterfinals is possible if she finds her game.
Belinda Bencic
Belinda Bencic, the #8 seed, is one of the hottest players on tour right now. So it's fitting that she's climbed back into the top 10. She's won two titles so far this year (Adelaide and Abu Dhabi) and has a W/L record of 15-2. Her only losses came at the hands of world #1 Iga Świątek and world #2 Aryna Sabalenka. With stats like those, she'll like her chances of going far this week. I was most impressed by how well Belinda managed her emotions in the final of Abu Dhabi. She saved multiple match points and came back from a set down against Samsonova to win the title. Normally, Belinda struggles against big servers. The manner in which she overcame Samsonova was really astonishing. Her draw in Dubai is a favorable won. The first seed she'd face would be Haddad Maia - a player she beat in straight sets in Abu Dhabi. Pegula likely awaits in the quarterfinals, which I'd say is a toss-up based on current form. But if I'm picking the winner based on confidence, it'd be hard to pick anyone over Belinda right now.
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina, the #9 seed, is finally in the top 10 where she belongs. The Kazakh made a run to the Australian Open Final and overcame a difficult draw to get there. She beat Danielle Collins, Iga Świątek, Jelena Ostapenko, and Victoria Azarenka en route to that final. She overcame three Grand Slam champions and a Grand Slam finalist over the course of two weeks and only dropped one set before the final. It always feels like Elena has the odds stacked against her. From the Covid rankings freeze, the lack of Wimbledon ranking points, and the ridiculous court assignments, Elena has to work twice as hard just to be given the decency she deserves as a tennis player and person. She's proved that she will be at the top of tennis regardless of what you throw at her. Elena has already beaten Bianca Andreescu in the 1st Round of Dubai and she should like her chances of going further. With Elena's serve and big groundstrokes, she's a title contender in every tournament this year. Gauff will likely meet her in the 3rd Round. Similarly to Sabalenka, if Elena plays her best, she overwhelms her opponents. This tournament holds some significance for Elena. In 2020, she was on an absolute tear of reaching 4 Finals in less than 2 months. Dubai was one of those Finals. She came up a little bit short and fell to the great Simona Halep in 3 sets. But nonetheless, this tournament was a huge stepping stone for Elena, and she knows she’s capable of producing magic on these courts. If she stays healthy, Elena could win the title in Dubai and many more in 2023.
Veronika Kudermetova
Veronika Kudermetova, the #10 seed - ELIMINATED by Anhelina Kalinina in the 1st Round.
Beatriz Haddad Maia
Beatriz Haddad Maia, the #11 seed - ELIMINATED by Sorana Cîrstea in the 1st Round.
Petra Kvitová
Petra Kvitová, the #12 seed, had a great start to the year by beating Jessica Pegula in her first match. Things have slowed down a bit for the Czech since then. Petra lost to Anhelina Kalinina in the 2nd Round of the Australian Open and also lost in the 2nd Round of Doha to Coco Gauff. She won her first match in Dubai against Martina Trevisan 6-2, 6-1. We all know Petra can beat anyone in the world. She has every weapon, but she needs everything to click. She'll face Yulia Putintseva in the 2nd Round. Yulia could cause Petra some trouble if she's not on her game. But you'd still have to imagine Petra winning that 2nd Round match. She'd face either Kasatkina or Krejcikova in the 3rd Round. Neither of those players are in great form, so Petra should see this as an opportunity to find some rhythm and to hopefully play her best tennis.
Jelena Ostapenko
Jelena Ostapenko, the #13 seed, is a woman on a mission in 2023. She reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, where she lost to eventual finalist Elena Rybakina 6-2, 6-4. Before that match, she beat Coco Gauff 7-5, 6-3. She also beat Danielle Collins in Abu Dhabi as well as Madison Keys in Doha. In Doha, she served for the match against Jessica Pegula and had match points before losing 7-5 in the third set. Pegula went on to reach the Final. Ostapenko has played stunning tennis this year. She's improved her serve and has been blasting through tough opponents. She's already won her 1st Round against Katarina Zavatska and will face Linda Fruhvirtova next. Linda is only a teenager but competes like a champion. Ostapenko has her work cut out for her, but should be the favorite in that match. Sabalenka likely awaits in the 3rd Round. Regardless of what you think about her, Ostapenko is one of the most talented players on tour. Her raw ballstriking ability is some of the best in the modern game. She should never be underestimated.
Liudmila Samsonova
Liudmila Samsonova, the #14 seed, is one of the most underrated players on tour. She's coming off a Final showing in Abu Dhabi, where she lost to Belinda Bencic in three sets. But on her way to the Final, she beat Barbora Krejcikova, Veronika Kudermetova, and Qinwen Zheng. She very easily could've been the Abu Dhabi champion if she had played a few points differently. But Bencic fought til the end and showed why she's been a top player for all these years. Liudmila has already won her first match in Dubai, beating Paula Badosa. She'll face Qinwen Zheng in the 2nd Round. I'm thankful to be getting this rematch as they just played in Abu Dhabi. Two of the brightest young talents in the WTA playing so early is a bit of a shame, but we'll be treated to brilliant serving and some enormous winners. Bring it on. If Samsonova wins that match, she'll likely play Iga Świątek.
Victoria Azarenka
Victoria Azarenka, the #15 seed, is a testament to the fact that women can still play at the highest level after having a baby. She made the US Open Final in 2020 and has now reached the Australian Open Semifinals in 2023. She's making all mothers proud, everywhere. Vika beat Jessica Pegula en route to the semifinals and played a spectacular match. Vika showed why she's won two Grand Slams. She has such a high tennis IQ. She can hit the ball big, but is always willing to try new things and to make her opponents uncomfortable on court. She lost to Elena Rybakina in that semifinal, but put up a good showing. In Doha last week, Vika led Belinda Bencic by a set and 4-1 before losing the match. That's always a disappointing way to lose a match. But the fact that she pushed Belinda to the edge of defeat means Vika is absolutely going to be a threat in Dubai. She's one of the best hard court players of our generation. She's already beaten Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the 1st Round and will face Amanda Anisimova in the 2nd Round, and likely Caroline Garcia in the 3rd Round. While all these women are great players, Vika is playing the best tennis of the group right now.
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ekaterina Alexandrova, the #16 seed, has withdrawn from the tournament.
Qinwen Zheng
Qinwen Zheng is not seeded, but remains a dark horse and a serious threat to everyone in the draw. She has the most natural athletic ability I've seen on the tour in a decade. She's a great mover, big server, and aggressive hitter. Her forehand is incredibly heavy and has much more spin than the average WTA player, but she still hits it with a ton of pace. Qinwen can slide all over the court and turn defense to offense with ease. She already won her first match in Dubai against her countrywoman, Shuai Zhang, 6-3, 6-1. She'll face Liudmila Samsonova in the 2nd Round. Although she lost to Samsonova in the semifinals of Abu Dhabi a few weeks ago, that match could've gone either way. It's important to note that Qinwen seemed to be a bit injured in her last match against Maria Sakkari. But if she's recovered and is healthy, she has the potential to make a very deep run.