WTA Indian Wells 2023 Analysis - Issue #28

Even though the Indian Wells draw is yet to be released, we couldn't help ourselves. This week, we're taking a look at the world's top 10 players and some of the most in-form women on tour.

Written by Dove Sallow

With the WTA coming off some exciting events in Austin, Texas, and Monterrey, Mexico, we now turn our heads to the Sunshine Double. We're headed to Tennis Paradise this week. Granted, the weather hasn't been particularly sunny in California lately, but we'll roll with it. The draw is yet to be released, but that won’t stop this journalist/tennis enthusiast! This week, we're taking a dive into some of the favorites and dark horses competing at Indian Wells 2023.

Iga Świątek

Iga Świątek, current world #1, has to be mentioned first here. After starting off the season looking a bit lost in Australia, Iga rebounded nicely in the Middle East. She got back to winning ways, but more importantly, she got back to dominant ways. From Round 1 of Doha to the Final, Iga lost a total of 5 games across 3 matches. And she wasn't playing scrubs. She played a Grand Slam Finalist in Danielle Collins, world #11 Veronika Kudermetova, and world #3 Jessica Pegula and made them look extremely ordinary. The Pole also made a run to the Final of Dubai, but was stopped by Barbora Krejčíková 6-4, 6-2. Even though she didn't win that match, she accomplished a lot in the Middle East. Most importantly, she showed that she's still a very dominant world #1. She's the defending champion at Indian Wells and will like her chances of lifting another trophy. Iga adapts better than any of the current players on tour and enjoys the slow hard courts in the desert. There are a few other players who've shown they're capable of taking her out, but Iga is still the most reliable woman on tour.

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka, the world #2, has had a spectacular 2023 and we're only a couple months in. Winning her maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open this year, Aryna was on another level. She's 13-1 this year, with her only loss coming to Barbora Krejčíková in Dubai a couple weeks ago. It was a strange match, because Aryna was truly cruising. She led 6-0, 3-1 before everything changed. Barbora kept fighting and was determined to keep the score close. The closer the set got, the more it felt like Aryna was unraveling. We have seen Aryna get tight in matches before, but this was the first we saw of it in 2023. When she's striking well, serving well, and not beating herself, Aryna is basically unstoppable. But if you can make her doubt herself, and if you can keep asking questions of her when the match gets close, she tends to overplay. But if she can keep her focus over the course of the next two weeks, she should be a favorite to make a deep run in the desert. Aryna stated in her Dubai press conference that some of the pressure was off of her now because her win streak had been snapped. I'm interested to see what level and mindset she brings this week.

Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula, current world #3, has had a solid start to the year. I'd expect nothing less from one of the steadiest players on tour. The only players she's lost to this season are Petra Kvitova, Victoria Azarenka, Iga Świątek, and Barbora Krejčíková . It's important to note that she did beat Iga this year at the United Cup 6-2, 6-2. That match alone was enough to tell you that Jess came to play this year. She's ready to win some big titles and have big results in Grand Slams. The American is one of the best hard court players in the world and has a knack for adapting well to different conditions. This will serve her well at Indian Wells, where the wind often plays a factor throughout the tournament. Pegula uses her brain almost as much as her body on the court. Her groundstrokes are flat and accurate. She doesn't try to blow you off the court, but her persistent and steady aggression is just as effective as any of the biggest hitters on tour. Jess rarely has bad days, and when she does, she usually finds a way to win. Because of this, I usually have a lot of faith in her to make a deep run in every draw.

Ons Jabeur

Ons Jabuer, current world #4, will be making her return to tennis after undergoing surgery and taking some time off to get fully healthy. We haven't really gotten to see the Tunisian at her best in 2023. She played in Adelaide at the beginning of the year and injured herself against Linda Nosková during the match. Ons also played at the Australian Open (with an injury) and lost to Olympic Silver Medalist, Markéta Vondroušová in a tough 3-set battle. Jabuer is one of the most talented players the WTA has. Every shot she hits makes you hold your breath - you just never know what you're going to get. Her drop shots are always surprising and executed so well. She can blast you off the court with forehand winners, but sometimes, she just looks like she's in the mood for a game of cat and mouse. Her variety and cleverness makes her a dangerous competitor anywhere she plays. I hope Ons is fully healthy. Because if she is, there's no one in this draw she can't beat. But regardless of results, Indian Wells will serve as a platform to kick off her season (healthy) and build some momentum.

Caroline Garcia

Caroline Garcia, world #5, is coming off a Final showing in Monterrey, Mexico. She lost to Donna Vekić in 3 sets, but Caro put up a great fight. It hasn't been the best of starts for Garcia this year, but she certainly hasn't been bad. She made 2 finals in the last 3 weeks, with the other final coming in Lyon. She lost to the immensely talented Alycia Parks in front of her home crowd, but still played at a high level. Caro similarly lost a tight match to Maria Sakkari in the Doha Quarterfinals. There's a bit of a theme going on with the Frenchwoman this year - she's losing a lot of close matches to tough competition. Whether that's due to the pressure of being ranked in the top 10 again or just some bad cases of nerves in the worst possible moments, only Caro knows. I wouldn't consider her a favorite at Indian Wells based on current form. She's capable of turning it on and becoming a major threat to everyone in the draw. But as for now, she continues to search for answers.

Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff, world #6, is 12-3 this season and doesn't appear to be slowing down. Recently, Coco played in the semifinals of Doha, where she lost to world #1 Iga Świątek 6-4, 6-2. I think Iga is always going to be a tough matchup for Coco (as she is for everyone), but I really felt like she played a much better match this time than in any of their previous meetings. Gauff was driving through her forehand a lot more and served well. The forehand errors are still a bit of a problem, but she's definitely improved in that area. I've noticed that she's been spinning it a lot more lately in her matches as opposed to driving through it. This is surely a tactical choice to try to keep the errors low on that wing and to mainly dictate with her backhand. I'm not sure this is the answer to fixing the forehand issues, but it's definitely an effective way to win matches she's supposed to win. Against the top players in the world, I do believe she'll need to find a way to consistently drive through her forehand without it breaking down. But the teenager has so much upside. She's becoming one of the best servers on tour and is already one of the best movers. She knows how to volley and has a great backhand. The crowd will be pulling for her to make a deep run in the desert. I've noticed there are certain players she doesn't seem to match up well against. So ultimately, I think a lot of her success will depend on the draw.

Maria Sakkari

Maria Sakkari, world #7, has been up and down since the season started. Her 2 losses in Australia came to Martina Trevisan and Lin Zhu. Both of these players are dangerous on their day, but Maria was really struggling in those matches. She didn't serve particularly well, often went for too much at the wrong time, and tightened up in the important moments of both matches. Sakkari then went to Linz. She played a great match against her good friend, Donna Vekić, and won 6-3, 7-6(8). Sadly, she followed that match up with a loss to Petra Martić. During that match, Maria never made adjustments when returning Martić's serve and also struggled on her own serve. She played some great tennis the following week in Doha, where she reached the semifinals. Maria took out some big names (Qinwen Zheng, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Caroline Garcia) before falling to Pegula in 3 sets. She followed up that semifinal run with a first round loss to Karolína Plíšková (6-1, 6-2) in Dubai. Plíšková is a former world #1 and a great player in her own right. But the manner in which Sakkari lost was just shocking. Her form is constantly fluctuating this year. To make matters worse, she has a ton of points to defend at Indian Wells this year, as she was a finalist in 2022. She really needs to find a way to stay steady for these next 2 weeks and bring her best tennis. I don't know if it'll happen. But one thing about Maria, she has passion in bucketloads. She might be able to channel it just in time.

Daria Kasatkina

Daria Kasatkina, world #8, has had a subpar year so far. She's 5-6 in 2023 and has lost some very weird matches. The most recent one came in Dubai against Barbora Krejčíková. Kasatkina had 4 match points - not an easy way to go out. But Barbora did end up winning the tournament. Even though she lost, Kasatkina played some solid tennis. I was glad to see her fighting and trying new things. She made more of an effort to be aggressive with her forehand when she had the opportunity. The match was definitely an improvement from a few other matches she played this year where she was blown off the court. I am a fan of Daria's game and I believe she offers a lot to the tour. She likes to take her time and set up her points. But when she's getting hit off the court, she needs to recognize when it's time to step up and try to dictate play. The courts at Indian Wells usually play a bit slower, which should suit Daria's game. She'll be hoping for a kind draw to gain some confidence. When she's confident, Kasatkina is a nightmare for a lot of players - especially in slower conditions.

Belinda Bencic

Belinda Bencic, world #9, is having an impeccable 2023 so far. She's 16-4 this year and has already won 2 titles. The most recent one came in Abu Dhabi, where she saved multiple match points to defeat Liudmila Samsonova 1-6, 7-6(8), 6-4. This match was a real testament to how much Belinda has worked on the mental side of her game. In the past, Belinda would often have meltdowns in tight matches and lose focus. But now, she just seems like she knows exactly what she wants to do on court and knows exactly how to execute it, no matter what the score is. I think her new coaching partnership with Dmitry Tursunov has brought a lot of clarity to her game. Belinda has some of the best timing on tour and takes the ball very early. Dmitry has made this part of her game even more lethal. She's improved her serve as well as her return. She's been looking to finish points much quicker than I've ever seen from her. Belinda will be a very tough opponent to take out in the desert.

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina, world #10, is finally ranked closer to where she belongs. In all honesty, she should be closer to the top 5. But at least she's a top 10 seed now and will have a Bye into Round 2. Not only is this better for Elena, but it's better for the rest of the seeds as well. Elena has played some remarkable tennis so far this year. Her run to the Australian Open Final was stunning in more ways than one. She took out 3 Grand Slam Champions and 1 Grand Slam Finalist en route to the Final and made it look quite simple. The only set she lost before the Final was to Danielle Collins. Losing the Final to Aryna Sabalenka must've been disappointing. But at the same time, it has to be taken as a huge positive for her and her team. Reaching another Grand Slam Final 6 months after winning Wimbledon is a terrific sign that she's going to keep finding herself in these positions throughout her career. The only thing to keep an eye on is her health. Elena played some matches in the Middle East, but was said to have caught a virus/illness in Dubai. She played through her illness for a few matches, but withdrew due to a back injury. I hope she's fully healthy when she shows up at Indian Wells. If she is, she's one of the favorites to take the title.

DANGEROUS PLAYERS OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 10

Beatriz Haddad Maia

Beatriz Haddad Maia, world #13, is one of the most dangerous players in the field. She has a very complete game and is utterly fearless. Bia has a 7-2 record against top 10 players since 2019. That stat is ludicrous. When she plays the best in the world, she goes for the kill. The Brazilian is one of the most tenacious competitors on tour and doesn't give any cheap points away. Her serve is powerful and she has heavy groundstrokes. She's also shockingly fast for someone over 6 feet tall. Bia has made 2 quarterfinals and a semifinal so far in 2023 and knocked out some dangerous opponents. She has wins over Elena Rybakina, Paula Badosa, and Daria Kasatkina. She'll be coming into Indian Wells knowing that she can knock out anyone in the top 10. I'm expecting a deep run in the desert for the Brazilian.

Victoria Azarenka

Victoria Azarenka, world #14, has shown everyone in 2023 why she's been a champion for such a long time. She's 10-5 this year and made a tremendous run to the semifinals of the Australian Open. While she's a dangerous player on all surfaces, Vika is at her best when she's on hard courts. Frankly, she's one of the most timeless hard court players of this generation. Not only has she won Indian Wells, but she's also won the Sunshine Double. Winning Indian Wells and Miami in the same year is an absolute test for any athlete. There's very little recovery time between the events and the heat can be grueling. Vika brings a unique level of experience to the field that not many women in the draw possess. If she makes it out of the first couple of rounds unscathed, she becomes one of the favorites. Vika just knows how to elevate her game in the latter stages of big events. Given a decent draw, I could see her making another deep run in the desert.

Barbora Krejčíková

Barbora Krejčíková, world #16, is arguably the most in form player on tour right now. Coming off a title win in Dubai, Barbora will be eager to get back on court and cause some damage in the desert. The tennis she played in Dubai was sensational. She saved 4 match points against Daria Kasatkina in Round 2 and slowly built up her level from there. After defeating one of her idols, Petra Kvitova, in Round 3, Barbora got emotional and told the crowd how much that win meant to her. In the quarterfinals, she came back from 0-6, 1-3 to beat the impenetrable Aryna Sabalenka in three sets and also took out Jessica Pegula in the semifinals. By the time she reached the Final, Barbora looked so smooth. She was serving at a high level, dictating play with her fluid groundstrokes, and transitioning to the net like she always does when she's feeling good on court. Krejcikova has one of the most gorgeous games I've seen in a long time. When it all clicks, her peak level is some of the most brilliant tennis you'll ever see. She looks poised for a good couple of weeks in Tennis Paradise.

Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa, world #22, has been a bit unlucky this season. She was playing some great tennis in Australia, but was forced to withdraw from the Australian Open due to an injury. Before the injury, she was 4-0 with wins over Anett Kontaveit, Kaia Kanepi, and Beatriz Haddad Maia. She lost a hefty sum of ranking points for withdrawing from the Adelaide semifinals, because she was the defending champion. She also lost her Australian Open Round of 16 points from 2022 due to the injury. Paula made her return in Doha, but lost to Beatriz Haddad Maia in straight sets. She then went to Dubai and received a horrendous draw, where she faced Liudmila Samsonova and lost in three tough sets. Paula's current ranking does not reflect how great a player she is. The Spaniard is an Indian Wells Champion and loves the conditions in the desert. She hits a heavy ball with a ton of margin and is also a great mover. Badosa is always a threat on a slow hard court.

Donna Vekić

Donna Vekić, world #23, is coming off of a title win in Monterrey. She defeated Caroline Garcia in one of the best matches of the year so far, 6-4, 3-6, 7-5. No one has been talking about the fact that Donna is 14-2 in 2023. Her only losses came at the hands of Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari - two top notch opponents, ranked well inside the top 10. Donna is a former top 20 player who fell out of form due to an injury that required surgery. Recovering back to this ranking took a lot of hard work. She's enlisted Pam Shriver as her coach and it appears to be a golden match. Donna has always been one of the best ballstrikers on tour, but I'm most impressed with how much better she's gotten with the tactical aspect of her game. She has a sneaky good drop shot that she times excellently. The Croatian has been willing to mix up the pace in rallies and take her opponents by surprise. Although she possesses a ton of raw power, she has a lot of other options in her game as well. Donna is a dark horse at Indian Wells this year and looks like she's ready to have a big season.

Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko, world #25, is enjoying a resurgence this year. The Latvian had a nice run to the Australian Open quarterfinals where she was stopped by eventual finalist, Elena Rybakina. But Jelena knocked out Coco Gauff in straight sets in the Round of 16. She also beat the dangerous Danielle Collins in 3 sets in Abu Dhabi. In Doha, Ostapenko had match points against world #3 Jessica Pegula before losing 7-5 in the 3rd set. She also led Aryna Sabalenka by a set in Dubai before losing the match. Although she's lost some tight matches lately, those losses were to some of the absolute best players on tour right now. Ostapenko is going to be dangerous at Indian Wells with the current form she's in. The courts aren't quite as fast as she'd normally prefer, but she's really solid on all surfaces. If her weapons are firing, she's going to take out a lot of top competition. A confident Ostapenko is someone to run from.

Danielle Collins

Danielle Collins, world #31, has been a victim of some nightmare draws this year. In her first match of the year, she faced Elena Rybakina. Need I say more? She also faced Elena in Round 3 of the Australian Open, despite being a top 20 player. She lost both matches to Elena in three sets. It's really disheartening for Danielle because she played well in those matches, but had nothing to show for it. The American lost a huge amount of points due to the 3rd Round Australian Open exit because she was unable to defend her finalist points from the year prior. Danielle faced Ostapenko in Round 1 of Abu Dhabi and similarly lost in three sets. She went to Doha next and faced Iga Swiatek in Round 2 (see what I mean about the terrible draws?) and lost 6-0, 6-1. Danielle did not play well against Iga at all, but in the other matches her level was high. Losing a lot of close matches has a way of eating at your confidence and that's exactly what happened to Danielle. She went to Austin to find some form and matches. Collins lost in the semifinals to eventual champion, Marta Kostyuk, 6-4, 6-3. Although Danielle didn't play her best in that match, Marta was exceptional and deserved the win. The important thing for Danielle is that she got some match wins under her belt and seems to have her focus back. She is certainly a better player than her ranking suggests. In Austin, we saw some glamorously powerful backhand winners and some fierce fist pumps. Given the right draw, I could see Danielle having a nice run at Indian Wells.

Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk, world #40, just won her first WTA title in Austin, Texas. She'll be coming into the desert with perhaps the most confidence in her game she's ever had. This makes Marta even more dangerous than she already was. The Ukrainian has long been one of the tours best kept young talents. But she's slowly turned into one of the most complete players on the WTA tour. Marta is one of the best movers and also has great stamina. Her groundstrokes are powerful and she's comfortable finishing points at the net. She also has great court awareness and knows when to use a softer touch in the forecourt. All in all, Kostyuk is a very complete player and an intimidating competitor. Her serve is the biggest weakness in her game, but the other attributes she possesses are so varied and so well executed that she's able to get away with it. Marta is a dark horse in Tennis Paradise and I expect a big result from her over the next two weeks.