WTA Stuttgart 2023 Analysis - Issue #33

1 of the most unique clay court events is back. Swiatek will be in action for the 1st time since Indian Wells, along with Rybakina, Sabalenka, & the rest of the tour's top players. Here's our analysis

Written by Dove Sallow

WTA Stuttgart has officially started and the field is stacked, to say the least. Current world #1, Iga Świątek, will make her first appearance since she picked up an injury at Indian Wells. The two most in-form women on tour, Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, will also be in action. With such a competitive field, there are no easy matches and there's nowhere to hide. This week, we're taking a look at the players who may (or may not) do some damage on the indoor clay courts of Stuttgart.

Iga Świątek

Iga has had a less stellar start to her season than she had in 2022. But let's be honest, it would be pretty ridiculous to ask anyone to repeat that type of success two years in a row. She still had some promising results in 2023. She won the title in Doha, reached the final in Dubai, and reached the semifinals of Indian Wells. These are not bad results in the slightest. In fact, they're great. But we all know Iga holds herself to an extremely high standard, as she should. All eyes will be on her as this is her first tournament since she injured herself at Indian Wells. Her game is extremely physical and the competition is top notch this week. In her 2nd round match, she'll face the extremely talented Qinwen Zheng. If she gets through that, she'll play Donna Vekic or Maria Sakkari/Karolina Plíšková. It will be a real test to see how her body holds up. If she's healthy, she still has to be one of the favorites to win the title. The indoor clay courts are probably a bit faster than she'd prefer. But she did win this tournament last year. Iga is still the best problem solver on the WTA tour. I expect her to make a deep run if she's healthy.

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna is clearly one of the women to beat in Stuttgart. She is 20-3 (W/L) this season, with her only losses coming to Barbora Krejčíková, Elena Rybakina, and Sorana Cîrstea. Winning the Australian Open at the start of the year obviously gave her a ton of confidence. She's had some brilliant results and has largely cleaned up the double faults and unforced errors that plagued her game in 2022. It must be mentioned that she did not look great in the last match she played, where she lost to Sorana Cirstea in the Miami Quarterfinal. The double faults crept back into her game and she was overplaying during some really crucial moments. Clay isn't her favorite surface, but the indoor conditions in Stuttgart will suit her well. Her 2nd round opponent will either be Barbora Krejčíková or Liudmila Samsonova. This is probably the toughest first match she could've drawn. Aryna is still the favorite, but Barbora has given her a fair amount of trouble this year. Samsonova has also given her trouble, with their head to head tied (1-1). Samsonova similarly should enjoy the quick, indoor clay courts and has the ability to hold her own from the baseline against Aryna. If Sabalenka is focused and at her best, she has a good shot at doing well this week. But either of her 2nd round opponents could knock her out early.

Ons Jabeur

Ons Jabeur had an unfortunate start to her season as she got injured in Australia and had to undergo minor surgery. But she found her game on the green clay of Charleston a few weeks ago when she won the title. Ons can play on any surface, but watching her play on clay is something special. Her drop shots and slice are even more lethal on this surface than on hard courts. She will probably adapt well to the indoor clay conditions. She's proven she can play on fast surfaces (Wimbledon 2022). Unfortunately, her draw could be tricky. She'll face either Emma Raducanu or Jelena Ostapenko in the 2nd round. Ostapenko is having a brilliant year and can hit anyone off the court on a fast surface. If she gets through that match, she'll very likely face Elena Rybakina. These two played a beautiful match in the Wimbledon final. Given Elena's form this year, you'd have to give her the edge in that matchup. But in women's tennis, you just never know. If Ons can build on her Charleston momentum, she could build up a ton of confidence leading into Roland Garros.

Caroline Garcia

This has not been Caroline Garcia's year. She finished 2022 playing spectacular, fearless tennis. But she was ousted in the 4th round of the Australian Open, 4th round of Indian Wells, and 2nd round of Miami. She did reach the final of a 250 in Lyon as well as another final in a 250 in Monterrey. Although she played at a pretty high level, Garcia didn't have the confidence to win either of those titles. As I stated above, her game has suffered in the big events this year. She will desperately hope to find some success this week. Luckily for Caro, she's in a softer section of the draw. She'll face either Tatjana Maria or Ylena In-Albon in the 2nd round. But I could see Anastasia Potapova, Petra Martić, Coco Gauff, or Veronika Kudermetova upsetting her in the quarterfinals. But with her early ball striking and aggressive returning position, she has every chance to do well in Stuttgart if she can find her confidence.

Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff is one of the players in this draw who I'm very interested in seeing how she plays on the indoor clay courts. Her game is probably more naturally suited to the traditional, outdoor clay. Her athleticism and incredible court coverage are what took her to the Roland Garros final last year. These clay courts are certainly going to take some getting used to for Coco. Her serve is one of the fastest on tour, which will help her this week. She has the ability to drive through her backhand beautifully. The more she's able to do that on this surface, the better. Her first round opponent is Veronika Kudermetova, a player who's been struggling this year. I see Coco as the favorite in this match, but if Kudermetova serves well and keeps the unforced errors low, she could upset Coco. If the teenager makes it through that, we could see a rematch from the Miami Open against Anastasia Potapova. Potapova played fearless tennis to knock Gauff out in the 3rd round. I'm sure Coco wants some revenge. If we get to see this matchup, get your popcorn ready.

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina is one of the women to beat in Stuttgart. With the type of tennis she's been playing this year, I'd make her the slight favorite to take the title. That Australian Open Final loss to Aryna Sabalenka was tough, but it motivated her to play even better. She defeated both Iga Świątek and Aryna Sabalenka to win Indian Wells without dropping a set. Elena almost completed the Sunshine Double, but lost in the final of Miami to a ruthless Petra Kvitová. Elena will like the indoor clay courts of Stuttgart. She has the best serve in the world and hits some of the flattest groundstrokes on tour. Her power comes so naturally - it never feels like she's over hitting or trying to go for too much at the wrong time. When she's at her very best, I don't think there's a woman alive who can beat her. Sabalenka has a similar game, but she takes a lot more risk with both her serve and groundstrokes. Where Aryna's power comes from brute force, Elena's comes from perfect technique and precision with every swing. This is why her game feels a bit steadier than Sabalenka's, even though both are big hitters and huge servers. She'll face Jule Niemeier in the 1st round and likely Beatriz Haddad Maia in the 2nd round. Beatriz defeated her earlier this year, but Elena has only improved since that match. The Kazakh will probably play either Ons Jabeur or Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals. She should be the favorite to win that as well. A semifinal clash with Iga Świątek will likely decide who wins the title this week.

Daria Kasatkina

Daria Kasatkina has had a sluggish start to 2023. Besides reaching the final in Adelaide at the start of the year, Dasha was unable to win two matches in a row throughout the entire hard court swing. Luckily, she found some form in Charleston, where she reached the semifinals. It's no surprise that she came alive during a clay court tournament. Dasha is one of the craftiest and quickest players in this draw. From her looping forehand to the tricky angles she can produce, Dasha would definitely prefer a slower clay court than this one. Her 1st round opponent is Paula Badosa, another player who loves the clay. Paula has a bigger serve and has the ability to hit a heavier, more powerful forehand. I expect Paula to upset Dasha in the 1st round. But regardless of who wins, this will be a high-quality match. If Dasha loses early, she'll have a bit more time to adjust to the outdoor clay courts for the rest of the lead up to Roland Garros.

Maria Sakkari

Maria Sakkari has had a pretty consistent start to 2023. Besides suffering a 3rd round loss to Lin Zhu at the Australian Open, she's produced some solid tennis. Maria reached the semifinals of Doha, semifinals of Indian Wells, and the semifinals of a 250 in Linz. She did lose in the 2nd round of Miami to Bianca Andreescu. But we all know Bianca can be extremely dangerous when she's in form. I wouldn't consider that early loss a bad result at all. While Sakkari has been consistent, she hasn't looked like a real title contender in any event she's played this year. She has the fighting qualities to contend for any title, but she needs to come up with a higher level towards the latter end of these tournaments. Her draw could be tricky this week. She'll face Karolina Plíšková in the 1st round. Maria lost to Karolina 6-1, 6-2 in Dubai a few months ago. She was able to beat the Czech in the 4th round of Indian Wells 6-4 5-7 6-3. There was some drama in that match regarding a ball that Karolina thought touched Maria's racquet and landed out. Upon examining that point, I have to say I think Pliskova was right. It'll be an interesting match that either of them can win. Given the faster conditions, I'd give Plíšková the edge because of her big serve and flat ball striking. If Maria gets through that match, she'll play one of her best friends, Donna Vekić. That's another tough match for Maria, as Donna is in the form of her life. If she gets through both of those, she'll face Iga Świątek. This week will be a tough test for Maria and I don't think she'll make it far with this draw. But Maria is a great battler and it would be foolish to count her out.