Madrid Open WTA Quarterfinals Analysis - Issue #34

We're down to the final 8 women in Madrid. Let's breakdown the quarterfinals!

Written by Dove Sallow

Did you miss me? (kidding) No, but really, I missed you guys.

With WTA currently in Madrid, there hasn't been a dull moment during this past week of women's tennis. With Iga Świątek healthy and back to winning ways on her favorite surface, the field is starting to feel a bit less open. With Elena Rybakina and Barbora Krejčíková both eliminated, many people are expecting to see Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Świątek fight for the title. But this is women's tennis - there's always room for an upset. Here's our breakdown of the quarterfinal matchups.

Iga Świątek vs Petra Martić

This is probably the most straight-forward looking match on paper. When the draw came out, I don't think any of us expected Petra Martić to make it this far this week. With Elena Rybakina losing to Anna Kalinskaya in the 2nd round, the draw opened up nicely for a player like Petra to capitalize. She overcame Kalinskaya as well as Barbora Krejčíková. That's no small feat. But this is Petra's favorite time of the season. With her heavy forehand, sneaky slice backhand, and all-court game, she really can cause trouble for anyone on this surface... anyone except for the world #1. She's had a great week, but I don't see the Croatian coming through this one. Iga has won 24 of her last 25 matches on clay. That statistic is mind-numbing to even read. There are no holes in her game - particularly on this surface. She gets to every ball, dictates play beautifully, serves well, and returns well. It would take a much bigger hitter to take Iga out.

Jessica Pegula vs Veronika Kudermetova

These are two top players who've had drastically different seasons. Jess is probably the 2nd most reliable woman on tour, after Iga Świątek. Going by rankings and numbers, she beats who she's supposed to beat and loses who she's supposed to lose to. On the other hand, Kudermetova had lost 6 of her last 7 matches heading into Madrid. She suffered a shocking loss to Katie Volynets at the Australian Open and she hasn't looked the same since, if I'm being honest. Her game is aggressive and brutal in all the best ways. But when she loses confidence, she can really have some dips in form. Veronika did well to fight through all 3 of her matches in 3 sets in Madrid. Watching her, she looks like a woman on a mission. She's still not playing her best tennis, but she's playing well in patches and finding her game in the crucial moments. Jess will definitely be the fresher of the two, having only lost 1 set en route to the quarterfinals. Given how much tennis Veronika has played already this week, it would be a massive feat to overcome Pegula. If Veronika doesn't bring her biggest weapon (her serve), this match will be basically impossible to win. Jess is going to make her work for every point and be aggressive when she can. Veronika will try to overpower her from the back of the court. Kudermetova has the higher peak, but we haven't seen it much lately. But I've come to learn to expect the unexpected when it comes to Kudermetova.

Maria Sakkari vs Irina-Camelia Begu

Maria Sakkari did not look great coming into this tournament. She struggled in her 3rd round match against home crowd favorite, Rebeka Masarova. I wasn't expecting her to pull off the win in her 4th round match against Paula Badosa, but Sakkari never fails to surprise me. I don't know how she turned her form around so drastically in a day's time, but the Greek played a spotless match. She served well and used her heavy groundstrokes to dictate without making too many errors. Paula didn't play her best, but Maria didn't let her find any kind of rhythm. It's easy to forget that Maria had match points to reach the Roland Garros Final in 2021. But when she plays the way she did today, I'm reminded of just how dangerous she can be on a clay court. Her opponent, Irina Begu, knocked out one of the biggest servers on tour, Liudmila Samsonova, in her 4th round match. That's a pretty impressive result, especially considering that Madrid is at such high altitude. Strong servers get a bit more out of their serves than they would on a normal clay court. Sakkari will be a heavy favorite in most people's eyes, but Begu's best surface is clay. She can counterpunch well and puts a good amount of spin on her shots. Maria seems to struggle against lower ranked opponents who can force her into errors. Sakkari has more weapons and could win this match comfortably. But I have a feeling that Begu's consistency is going to give her some problems. I wouldn't be surprised if the Romanian pulls off the upset.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Mayar Sherif

After reaching the final in Stuttgart last week, I doubt that many people are surprised to see Aryna in another quarterfinal. I've said it so many times, but she's a different player this year. It doesn't matter what surface you put her on, her game is so forceful and enormous that it's effective anywhere she plays. She hasn't dropped a set on her way to the quarterfinals, which shows that she's keeping her error count low and playing polished tennis. In her 4th round match against the 16-year-old darling of the tournament, Mirra Andreeva, Sabalenka was ruthless. It was a bit hard to watch because Mirra has such a beautiful game and can do so many things on the court. But we weren't able to see any of that because Sabalenka just overpowered her and didn't allow her to play her game. That's the scariest thing about playing Aryna. Even for the best players in the world, so much of what happens on court is out of their control. Her opponent, Mayar Sherif, is certainly not who Aryna expected to be facing at this stage of the event. But Mayar is a clay court player. She boasts a 75% win percentage on this surface in comparison to 52% on hard courts. Mayar became the first Egyptian to reach the quarterfinals of a WTA 1000. Coming from a country without many successful tennis players, this achievement is downright incredible. But who she defeated along the way is what makes it even more impressive. Sherif knocked out Camila Giorgi, Caroline Garcia, and Elise Mertens to get here. She plays a tenacious game style and moves very well on this surface. Her forehand grip is one of the most extreme that you'll ever find on the WTA tour. Although it hurts her on very fast courts, it helps her on clay. She generates a lot of topspin on her forehand wing, which is particularly difficult for her opponents on a gritty surface like this one. It would be foolish to say anyone but Sabalenka will win this match. However, underdogs have a way of making magic happen in this beautiful sport. Sabalenka would have to have an off-day, but never say never.